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Cincinnati Financial Reports Third-Quarter 2016 Results

CINCINNATI, Oct. 25, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today reported:

  • Third-quarter 2016 net income of $180 million, or $1.08 per share, compared with $174 million, or $1.05 per share, in the third quarter of 2015.
  • $29 million decrease in operating income* to $143 million, or 86 cents per share, down from $172 million, or $1.04 per share, in the third quarter of last year.
  • $6 million increase in third-quarter 2016 net income, reflecting the after-tax net effect of two primary items: a $35 million increase in net realized investment gains; partially offset by an increase of $19 million in catastrophe losses.
  • $43.24 book value per share at September 30, 2016, a record-high amount and up $4.04 or 10 percent since December 31, 2015.
  • 14.0 percent value creation ratio for the first nine months of 2016, compared with zero percent for the same period of 2015.

Financial Highlights

(Dollars in millions except per share data)

Three months ended September 30,

Nine months ended September 30,


2016


2015


% Change


2016


2015


% Change

Revenue Data













   Earned premiums


$

1,191



$

1,127



6


$

3,518



$

3,332



6

   Investment income, net of expenses


148



143



3


442



422



5

   Total revenues


1,402



1,278



10


4,137



3,879



7

Income Statement Data













   Net income


$

180



$

174



3


$

491



$

478



3

   Realized investment gains, net


37



2



nm


105



71



48

   Operating income*


$

143



$

172



(17)


$

386



$

407



(5)

Per Share Data (diluted)













   Net income


$

1.08



$

1.05



3


$

2.95



$

2.89



2

   Realized investment gains, net


0.22



0.01



nm


0.63



0.43



47

   Operating income*


$

0.86



$

1.04



(17)


$

2.32



$

2.46



(6)














   Book value








$

43.24



$

38.77



12

   Cash dividend declared


$

0.48



$

0.46



4


$

1.44



$

1.38



4

   Diluted weighted average shares outstanding


166.8



165.5



1


166.5



165.5



1



*

The Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures defines and reconciles measures presented in this release that are not based on U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

**

Forward-looking statements and related assumptions are subject to the risks outlined in the company's safe harbor statement.

Insurance Operations Third-Quarter Highlights

  • 92.4 percent third-quarter 2016 property casualty combined ratio, up from 87.8 percent for third-quarter 2015.
  • 7 percent growth in third-quarter net written premiums, reflecting price increases and premium growth initiatives.
  • $149 million third-quarter 2016 property casualty new business written premiums, up 8 percent. Agencies appointed since the beginning of 2015 contributed $10 million or 7 percent of total new business written premiums.
  • 14 percent growth in third-quarter life insurance earned premiums, with steady progress in life insurance operations and financial contribution.

Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights

  • 3 percent or $5 million increase in third-quarter 2016 pretax investment income, including 5 percent growth for stock portfolio dividends and 3 percent growth for bond interest income.
  • Three-month increase of 1 percent in fair value of total investments at September 30, 2016, including a 1 percent increase for both the stock portfolio and the bond portfolio.
  • $2.128 billion parent company cash and marketable securities at September 30, 2016, up 22 percent from year-end 2015.

Maintaining Investment Income Growth
Steven J. Johnston, president and chief executive officer, commented: "Net income for both the third quarter and the first nine months of 2016 increased 3 percent. Steady cash flow from our insurance operations allowed us to purchase additional securities. Those additional purchases contributed to a 5 percent third-quarter increase in dividend income from our high-quality stock investments and a 3 percent increase in interest income from our bond portfolio."

Producing Stable Property Casualty Results
"Higher catastrophe losses continued in the third quarter of this year. Weather-related natural catastrophes for accident year 2016 accounted for 4.7 points of our 92.4 percent quarterly combined ratio and 7.8 points of our 94.4 percent nine-month combined ratio.

"We continue to benefit from our consistent reserving philosophy. Favorable reserve development of 4.6 points for the first nine months is within 0.2 points of last year's nine-month favorable reserve development of 4.4 points.

"To evaluate our current progress on our major profitability initiatives, we look at our core underwriting results as measured by our nine-month combined ratio before catastrophe losses and before reserve development for prior accident years. At 91.2 percent, that ratio improved 0.6 points compared with the same period last year."

Growing As Expected
"Consolidated property casualty net written premiums increased 6 percent to $3.5 billion for the first nine months of 2016 compared with the first nine months of 2015. New agency appointments, continued refinements in pricing precision and policy segmentation, along with our expansion into high net worth personal lines business and assumed reinsurance are cumulatively keeping our growth in line with our expectations.

"In the first nine months of 2016, new business written premiums from our agencies' high net worth clients totaled approximately $21 million. As our relationships with recently appointed agencies that focus on high net worth accounts continue to mature, we're confident that we'll reach our 2016 goal of $25 million in new high net worth business.

"The reinsurance market has responded favorably to our financial strength and relationship-based model, and our experienced reinsurance team continues to write new business as planned. Cincinnati Re contributed 2 percentage points to our overall premium growth for the year."

Delivering Steady Value for Shareholders
"At September 30, our book value again reached a record high, increasing 10 percent since December 31, 2015, to $43.24. Consolidated cash and total investments again topped $16 billion. Our ample capital allows us to execute on our long-term strategies and, at the same time, continue to pay dividends to shareholders.

"Our value creation ratio, which considers the dividends we pay as well as growth in book value, was 14 percent for the first nine months - and is on a pace to meet our 10 percent to 13 percent average annual target for this measure."

Insurance Operations Highlights

Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Results

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended September 30,


Nine months ended September 30,



2016


2015


% Change



2016


2015


% Change


Earned premiums


$

1,133



$

1,076



5



$

3,343



$

3,176



5


Fee revenues


3



2



50



7



6



17


   Total revenues


1,136



1,078



5



3,350



3,182



5















Loss and loss expenses


690



613



13



2,110



1,956



8


Underwriting expenses


356



332



7



1,044



983



6


   Underwriting profit


$

90



$

133



(32)



$

196



$

243



(19)















Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:






Pt. Change







Pt. Change


     Loss and loss expenses


61.0

%


56.9

%


4.1



63.1

%


61.5

%


1.6


     Underwriting expenses


31.4



30.9



0.5



31.3



31.0



0.3


           Combined ratio


92.4

%


87.8

%


4.6



94.4

%


92.5

%


1.9





















% Change







% Change


Agency renewal written premiums


$

1,036



$

999



4



$

3,121



$

3,000



4


Agency new business written premiums


149



138



8



417



392



6


Cincinnati Re net written premiums


21





nm



56





nm


Other written premiums


(31)



(39)



21



(78)



(86)



9


   Net written premiums


$

1,175



$

1,098



7



$

3,516



$

3,306



6















Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:






Pt. Change







Pt. Change


     Current accident year before catastrophe losses


59.8

%


58.7

%


1.1



59.9

%


60.8

%


(0.9)


     Current accident year catastrophe losses


4.7



2.6



2.1



7.8



5.1



2.7


     Prior accident years before catastrophe losses


(3.7)



(4.3)



0.6



(4.4)



(4.0)



(0.4)


     Prior accident years catastrophe losses


0.2



(0.1)



0.3



(0.2)



(0.4)



0.2


           Loss and loss expense ratio


61.0

%


56.9

%


4.1



63.1

%


61.5

%


1.6















Current accident year combined ratio before
     catastrophe losses


91.2

%


89.6

%


1.6



91.2

%


91.8

%


(0.6)















  • $77 million or 7 percent growth of third-quarter 2016 property casualty net written premiums and nine-month growth of 6 percent, with Cincinnati Re contributing 2 percentage points for each respective period. The increase also reflected other growth initiatives, price increases and a higher level of insured exposures.
  • $11 million or 8 percent increase in third-quarter 2016 new business premiums written by agencies and nine-month growth of 6 percent, primarily due to contributions from new agency appointments.
  • 1,592 agency relationships in 2,059 reporting locations marketing property casualty insurance products at September 30, 2016, compared with 1,526 agency relationships in 1,956 reporting locations at year-end 2015. During the first nine months of 2016, 60 new agency appointments were made for agencies that offer most or all of our property casualty insurance products.
  • 4.6 and 1.9 percentage-point third-quarter and nine-month 2016 combined ratio increases, including increases of 2.4 and 2.9 points for losses from natural catastrophes.
  • 3.5 percentage-point third-quarter 2016 benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development of $40 million, compared with 4.4 points or $48 million for third-quarter 2015.
  • 4.6 percentage-point nine-month 2016 benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development, compared with 4.4 points for the 2015 period.
  • 0.9 percentage-point improvement, to 59.9 percent, for the nine-month 2016 ratio of current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes, including an increase of 0.5 points in the ratio for current accident year losses of $1 million or more per claim.
  • 0.3 percentage-point increase in the nine-month 2016 underwriting expense ratio, as higher earned premiums and ongoing expense management efforts were slightly offset by strategic investments that include enhancement of underwriting expertise.

Commercial Lines Insurance Results

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended September 30,


Nine months ended September 30,



2016


2015


% Change



2016


2015


% Change


Earned premiums


$

779



$

757



3



$

2,310



$

2,235



3


Fee revenues


1



1



0



3



3



0


   Total revenues


780



758



3



2,313



2,238



3















Loss and loss expenses


456



398



15



1,425



1,289



11


Underwriting expenses


252



239



5



740



705



5


   Underwriting profit


$

72



$

121



(40)



$

148



$

244



(39)















Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:






Pt. Change







Pt. Change


     Loss and loss expenses


58.5

%


52.4

%


6.1



61.7

%


57.6

%


4.1


     Underwriting expenses


32.3



31.6



0.7



32.0



31.6



0.4


           Combined ratio


90.8

%


84.0

%


6.8



93.7

%


89.2

%


4.5





















% Change







% Change


Agency renewal written premiums


$

698



$

678



3



$

2,174



$

2,107



3


Agency new business written premiums


101



96



5



281



268



5


Other written premiums


(22)



(31)



29



(54)



(62)



13


   Net written premiums


$

777



$

743



5



$

2,401



$

2,313



4















Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:






Pt. Change







Pt. Change


     Current accident year before catastrophe losses


59.1

%


56.6

%


2.5



58.7

%


58.8

%


(0.1)


     Current accident year catastrophe losses


3.5



1.5



2.0



8.1



4.2



3.9


     Prior accident years before catastrophe losses


(4.5)



(5.6)



1.1



(5.0)



(5.0)



0.0


     Prior accident years catastrophe losses


0.4



(0.1)



0.5



(0.1)



(0.4)



0.3


           Loss and loss expense ratio


58.5

%


52.4

%


6.1



61.7

%


57.6

%


4.1















Current accident year combined ratio before
     catastrophe losses


91.4

%


88.2

%


3.2



90.7

%


90.4

%


0.3















  • $34 million or 5 percent increase in third-quarter 2016 commercial lines net written premiums, driven by higher renewal written premiums. Four percent increase in nine-month net written premiums.
  • $20 million or 3 percent rise in third-quarter renewal written premiums with commercial lines renewal pricing increases averaging in the low-single-digit percent range.
  • $5 million or 5 percent increase in third-quarter 2016 new business written by agencies. The nine-month increase was also 5 percent, with growth in each major commercial line of business.
  • 6.8 and 4.5 percentage-point increase in third-quarter and nine-month 2016 combined ratio, including increases of 2.5 and 4.2 points for losses from natural catastrophes.
  • 4.1 percentage-point third-quarter 2016 benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development of $31 million, compared with 5.7 points or $43 million for third-quarter 2015.
  • 5.1 percentage-point nine-month 2016 benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development, compared with a nine-month 2015 benefit of 5.4 points.
  • 0.1 percentage-point improvement, to 58.7 percent, for the nine-month 2016 ratio of current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes, including an increase of 1.8 points in the ratio for current accident year losses of $1 million or more per claim.

Personal Lines Insurance Results

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended September 30,


Nine months ended September 30,



2016


2015


% Change



2016


2015


% Change


Earned premiums


$

293



$

277



6



$

864



$

817



6


Fee revenues


1



1



0



3



2



50


   Total revenues


294



278



6



867



819



6















Loss and loss expenses


217



198



10



614



605



1


Underwriting expenses


85



82



4



253



244



4


   Underwriting loss


$

(8)



$

(2)



300



$



$

(30)



nm















Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:






Pt. Change







Pt. Change


     Loss and loss expenses


74.2

%


71.5

%


2.7



71.1

%


74.0

%


(2.9)


     Underwriting expenses


29.2



29.4



(0.2)



29.3



29.8



(0.5)


           Combined ratio


103.4

%


100.9

%


2.5



100.4

%


103.8

%


(3.4)





















% Change







% Change


Agency renewal written premiums


$

303



$

288



5



$

841



$

796



6


Agency new business written premiums


32



30



7



91



84



8


Other written premiums


(6)



(6)



0



(17)



(18)



6


   Net written premiums


$

329



$

312



5



$

915



$

862



6















Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:






Pt. Change







Pt. Change


     Current accident year before catastrophe losses


63.7

%


64.9

%


(1.2)



63.2

%


65.8

%


(2.6)


     Current accident year catastrophe losses


8.9



5.7



3.2



8.3



8.0



0.3


     Prior accident years before catastrophe losses


2.1



1.0



1.1



(0.1)



0.5



(0.6)


     Prior accident years catastrophe losses


(0.5)



(0.1)



(0.4)



(0.3)



(0.3)



0.0


           Loss and loss expense ratio


74.2

%


71.5

%


2.7



71.1

%


74.0

%


(2.9)















Current accident year combined ratio before
     catastrophe losses


92.9

%


94.3

%


(1.4)



92.5

%


95.6

%


(3.1)















  • $17 million or 5 percent increase in third-quarter 2016 personal lines net written premiums, including growth in new business and higher renewal written premiums that benefited from rate increases. Six percent increase in nine-month net written premiums.
  • $2 million or 7 percent growth in third-quarter new business written by agencies, with a nine-month growth rate of 8 percent. The growth was driven by expanding our share of business from agencies' high net worth clients, including an increase of approximately $9 million during the first nine months of 2016.
  • 2.5 percentage-point increase in the third-quarter 2016 combined ratio and a 3.4 percentage-point decrease for the nine-month period, including increases of 2.8 and 0.3 points for losses from natural catastrophes.
  • 1.6 percentage-point third-quarter 2016 unfavorable prior accident year reserve development of $4 million, compared with an unfavorable 0.9 points from $2 million for third-quarter 2015.
  • 0.4 percentage-point nine-month 2016 benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development, compared with a nine-month 2015 unfavorable effect of 0.2 points.
  • 2.6 percentage-point improvement, to 63.2 percent, for the nine-month 2016 ratio of current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes, reflecting a decrease of 2.7 points in the ratio for current accident year losses of $1 million or more per claim.

Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Results

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended September 30,


Nine months ended September 30,



2016


2015


% Change



2016


2015


% Change


Earned premiums


$

48



$

42



14



$

136



$

124



10


Fee revenues


1





nm



1



1



0


   Total revenues


49



42



17



137



125



10















Loss and loss expenses


15



17



(12)



55



62



(11)


Underwriting expenses


14



11



27



40



34



18


   Underwriting profit


$

20



$

14



43



$

42



$

29



45















Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:






Pt. Change






Pt. Change

     Loss and loss expenses


31.9

%


41.9

%


(10.0)



40.5

%


50.1

%


(9.6)


     Underwriting expenses


29.4



28.0



1.4



29.4



27.8



1.6


           Combined ratio


61.3

%


69.9

%


(8.6)



69.9

%


77.9

%


(8.0)





















% Change






% Change

Agency renewal written premiums


$

35



$

33



6



$

106



$

97



9


Agency new business written premiums


16



12



33



45



40



13


Other written premiums


(3)



(2)



(50)



(7)



(6)



(17)


   Net written premiums


$

48



$

43



12



$

144



$

131



10















Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:






Pt. Change






Pt. Change

     Current accident year before catastrophe losses


57.2

%


56.9

%


0.3



58.9

%


65.9

%


(7.0)


     Current accident year catastrophe losses


0.2



0.3



(0.1)



1.3



0.7



0.6


     Prior accident years before catastrophe losses


(25.5)



(15.4)



(10.1)



(19.6)



(16.4)



(3.2)


     Prior accident years catastrophe losses


0.0



0.1



(0.1)



(0.1)



(0.1)



0.0


           Loss and loss expense ratio


31.9

%


41.9

%


(10.0)



40.5

%


50.1

%


(9.6)















Current accident year combined ratio before
     catastrophe losses


86.6

%


84.9

%


1.7



88.3

%


93.7

%


(5.4)















  • $5 million or 12 percent increase in third-quarter 2016 excess and surplus lines net written premiums, in part reflecting higher renewal written premiums that benefited from rate increases averaging near the high end of the low-single-digit range. Ten percent increase in nine-month net written premiums.
  • $4 million or 33 percent increase in third-quarter new business written by agencies, raising the nine-month growth rate to 13 percent and reflecting an increase in marketing efforts while continuing to carefully underwrite each policy.
  • 8.6 percentage-point third-quarter 2016 combined ratio improvement, driven by more favorable prior accident year reserve development. For the nine-month 2016 period, the combined ratio improved 8.0 percentage points, primarily due to a lower ratio for current accident year loss experience before catastrophe losses.
  • 25.5 percentage-point third-quarter 2016 benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development of $12 million, compared with 15.3 points or $7 million for third-quarter 2015.
  • 19.7 percentage-point nine-month 2016 benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development, compared with a nine-month 2015 benefit of 16.5 points.
  • 7.0 percentage-point improvement, to 58.9 percent, for the nine-month 2016 ratio of current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes, including a decrease of 0.2 points in the ratio for current accident year losses of $1 million or more per claim.

Life Insurance Subsidiary Results

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended September 30,


Nine months ended September 30,


2016


2015


% Change



2016


2015


% Change


Term life insurance


$

37



$

34



9



$

112



$

103



9


Universal life insurance


13



9



44



34



28



21


Other life insurance, annuity, and disability income
   products


8



8



0



29



25



16


    Earned premiums


58



51



14



175



156



12


Investment income, net of expenses


40



38



5



117



112



4


Realized investment gains, net


3



(1)



nm



4



1



300


Fee revenues


2



2



0



4



4



0


Total revenues


103



90



14



300



273



10


Contract holders' benefits incurred


63



57



11



188



175



7


Underwriting expenses incurred


24



16



50



62



50



24


    Total benefits and expenses


87



73



19



250



225



11


Net income before income tax


16



17



(6)



50



48



4


Income tax


6



6



0



18



17



6


Net income of the life insurance subsidiary


$

10



$

11



(9)



$

32



$

31



3















  • $7 million or 14 percent increase in third-quarter 2016 earned premiums, including a 9 percent increase for term life insurance, our largest life insurance product line. The nine-month 2016 growth rate for term life matched third-quarter.
  • $1 million improvement in nine-month 2016 life insurance subsidiary net income, primarily due to revenue growth for both earned premiums and investment income.
  • $106 million or 12 percent nine-month 2016 increase to $979 million in GAAP shareholders' equity for the life insurance subsidiary, largely reflecting an increase in fair value of the fixed-maturity portfolio due to the effects of lower interest rates.

Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights

Investments Results

(Dollars in millions)


Three months ended September 30,


Nine months ended September 30,


2016


2015


% Change



2016


2015


% Change


Investment income, net of expenses


$

148



$

143



3



$

442



$

422



5


Investment interest credited to contract holders'


(23)



(21)



(10)



(67)



(64)



(5)


Realized investment gains, net


56



3



nm



161



110



46


      Investments profit


$

181



$

125



45



$

536



$

468



15















Investment income:













   Interest


$

111



$

108



3



$

330



$

319



3


   Dividends


39



37



5



117



108



8


   Other


1



1



0



2



2



0


   Less investment expenses


3



3



0



7



7



0


      Investment income, pretax


148



143



3



442



422



5


      Less income taxes


35



34



3



105



100



5


       Total investment income, after-tax


$

113



$

109



4



$

337



$

322



5















Investment returns:













      Effective tax rate


23.9

%


23.7

%




23.8

%


23.7

%



 Average invested assets plus cash and cash
   equivalents


$

15,564



$

14,498





$

15,192



$

14,399




      Average yield pretax


3.80

%


3.95

%




3.88

%


3.91

%



      Average yield after-tax


2.90



3.01





2.96



2.98




Fixed-maturity returns:













Effective tax rate


27.3

%


27.1

%




27.3

%


27.1

%



Average amortized cost


$

9,588



$

9,347





$

9,491



$

9,133




Average yield pretax


4.63

%


4.62

%




4.64

%


4.66

%



Average yield after-tax


3.37



3.37





3.37



3.40

















  • $5 million or 3 percent rise in third-quarter 2016 pretax investment income, including 5 percent growth in equity portfolio dividends and 3 percent growth in interest income.
  • $62 million or 2 percent third-quarter 2016 increase in pretax net unrealized investment portfolio gains, including an $82 million increase for the equity portfolio. The total increase included the offsetting effect of $57 million of pretax net realized gains from investment portfolio security sales or called bonds during the third quarter of 2016, including $47 million from the equity portfolio.

Balance Sheet Highlights

(Dollars in millions except share data)


At September 30,


At December 31,


2016


2015

   Total investments


$

15,642



$

14,423


   Total assets


20,455



18,888


   Short-term debt


20



35


   Long-term debt


786



786


   Shareholders' equity


7,121



6,427


   Book value per share


43.24



39.20


   Debt-to-total-capital ratio


10.2

%


11.3

%

  • $16.342 billion in consolidated cash and total investments at September 30, 2016, up 9 percent from $14.967 billion at year-end 2015.
  • $10.257 billion bond portfolio at September 30, 2016, with an average rating of A3/A. Fair value increased $119 million or 1 percent during the third quarter of 2016, including $150 million in net purchases of fixed-maturity securities.
  • $5.304 billion equity portfolio was 34 percent of total investments, including $2.135 billion in pretax net unrealized gains at September 30, 2016. Third-quarter 2016 increase in fair value of $62 million or 1 percent.
  • $4.679 billion of statutory surplus for the property casualty insurance group at September 30, 2016, up $266 million from $4.413 billion at year-end 2015, after declaring $300 million in dividends to the parent company. For the 12 months ended September 30, 2016, the ratio of net written premiums to surplus was 1.0-to-1, matching year-end 2015.
  • $0.87 three-month 2016 increase in book value per share, including additions of $0.87 from net income before realized gains and $0.47 from investment portfolio realized gains and changes in unrealized gains that were partially offset by deductions of $0.48 from dividends declared to shareholders.
  • Value creation ratio of 14.0 percent for the first nine months of 2016, reflecting 6.0 percent from net income before net realized investment gains, which includes underwriting and investment income, and 8.1 percent from investment portfolio realized gains and changes in unrealized gains.

For additional information or to register for our conference call webcast, please visit cinfin.com/investors.

About Cincinnati Financial
Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers business, home and auto insurance, our main business, through The Cincinnati Insurance Company and its two standard market property casualty companies. The same local independent insurance agencies that market those policies may offer products of our other subsidiaries, including life and disability income insurance, fixed annuities and surplus lines property and casualty insurance. For additional information about the company, please visit cinfin.com.

Mailing Address:


Street Address:

P.O. Box 145496


6200 South Gilmore Road

Cincinnati, Ohio 45250-5496


Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141

Safe Harbor Statement
This is our "Safe Harbor" statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2015 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 26.

Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:

  • Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes
  • Increased frequency and/or severity of claims or development of claims that are unforeseen at the time of policy issuance
  • Inadequate estimates, assumptions or reliance on third-party data used for critical accounting estimates
  • Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company's equity portfolio and book value
  • Domestic and global events resulting in capital market or credit market uncertainty, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
    • Significant or prolonged decline in the fair value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
    • Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
    • Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities
  • Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company's ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
  • Recession or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
  • Difficulties with technology or data security breaches, including cyberattacks, that could negatively affect our ability to conduct business and our relationships with agents, policyholders and others
  • Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations such as driverless cars that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products
  • Delays, inadequate data developed internally or from third parties, or performance inadequacies from ongoing development and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods, including telematics and other usage-based insurance methods, or technology projects and enhancements expected to increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
  • Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company's premium volume
  • Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages
  • Inability to obtain adequate ceded reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance coverage purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for nonpayment or delay in payment by reinsurers
  • Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
  • Inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends consistent with current or past levels
  • Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company's relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company's opportunities for growth, such as:
    • Downgrades of the company's financial strength ratings
    • Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult
    • Perceptions that the company's level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
    • Inability or unwillingness to nimbly develop and introduce coverage product updates and innovations that our competitors offer and consumers expect to find in the marketplace
  • Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:
    • Impose new obligations on us that increase our expenses or change the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates
    • Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
    • Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
    • Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance-related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
    • Increase our provision for federal income taxes due to changes in tax law
    • Increase our other expenses
    • Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
    • Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace
    • Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents
  • Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings
  • Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company's future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
  • Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
  • Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location

Further, the company's insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, global, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. The company also is subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for its common stock, such as measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.

 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets and Statements of Income (unaudited)


(Dollars in millions)




September 30,

December 31,






2016


2015

Assets








   Investments





$

15,642



$

14,423


   Cash and cash equivalents





700



544


   Premiums receivable





1,518



1,431


   Reinsurance recoverable





552



542


  Deferred policy acquisition costs





627



616


   Other assets





1,416



1,332


  Total assets





$

20,455



$

18,888










Liabilities








   Insurance reserves





$

7,632



$

7,301


   Unearned premiums





2,388



2,201


   Deferred income tax





879



638


   Long-term debt and capital lease obligations





827



821


   Other liabilities





1,608



1,500


  Total liabilities





13,334



12,461










Shareholders' Equity








   Common stock and paid-in capital





1,641



1,629


   Retained earnings





5,016



4,762


   Accumulated other comprehensive income





1,752



1,344


   Treasury stock





(1,288)



(1,308)


  Total shareholders' equity





7,121



6,427


  Total liabilities and shareholders' equity





$

20,455



$

18,888










(Dollars in millions except per share data)

Three months ended September 30,


Nine months ended September 30,


2016


2015


2016


2015

Revenues








   Earned premiums

$

1,191



$

1,127



$

3,518



$

3,332


   Investment income, net of expenses

148



143



442



422


   Realized investment gains, net

56



3



161



110


   Other revenues

7



5



16



15


        Total revenues

1,402



1,278



4,137



3,879










Benefits and Expenses








   Insurance losses and contract holders' benefits

753



670



2,298



2,131


   Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses

380



348



1,106



1,033


   Interest expense

13



14



39



40


   Other operating expenses

3



3



10



10


        Total benefits and expenses

1,149



1,035



3,453



3,214










Income Before Income Taxes

253



243



684



665










Provision for Income Taxes

73



69



193



187










Net Income

$

180



$

174



$

491



$

478










Per Common Share:








   Net income—basic

$

1.09



$

1.06



$

2.98



$

2.91


   Net income—diluted

1.08



1.05



2.95



2.89


 

Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures

(See attached tables for reconciliations; additional prior-period reconciliations available at cinfin.com/investors.)

Cincinnati Financial Corporation prepares its public financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). Statutory data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners' (NAIC) Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual, and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP data.

Management uses certain non-GAAP and non-statutory financial measures to evaluate its primary business areas – property casualty insurance, life insurance and investments. Management uses these measures when analyzing both GAAP and non-GAAP measures to improve its understanding of trends in the underlying business and to help avoid incorrect or misleading assumptions and conclusions about the success or failure of company strategies. Management adjustments to GAAP measures generally: apply to non-recurring events that are unrelated to business performance and distort short-term results; involve values that fluctuate based on events outside of management's control; supplement reporting segment disclosures with disclosures for a subsidiary company or for a combination of subsidiaries or reporting segments; or relate to accounting refinements that affect comparability between periods, creating a need to analyze data on the same basis.

  • Operating income: Operating income is calculated by excluding net realized investment gains and losses (defined as realized investment gains and losses after applicable federal and state income taxes) from net income. Management evaluates operating income to measure the success of pricing, rate and underwriting strategies. While realized investment gains (or losses) are integral to the company's insurance operations over the long term, the determination to realize investment gains or losses in any period may be subject to management's discretion and is independent of the insurance underwriting process. Also, under applicable GAAP accounting requirements, gains and losses can be recognized from certain changes in market values of securities without actual realization. Management believes that the level of realized investment gains or losses for any particular period, while it may be material, may not fully indicate the performance of ongoing underlying business operations in that period.
    For these reasons, many investors and shareholders consider operating income to be one of the more meaningful measures for evaluating insurance company performance. Equity analysts who report on the insurance industry and the company generally focus on this metric in their analyses. The company presents operating income so that all investors have what management believes to be a useful supplement to GAAP information.
  • Value creation ratio: This is a measure of shareholder value creation that management believes captures the contribution of the company's insurance operations, the success of its investment strategy and the importance placed on paying cash dividends to shareholders. The value creation ratio measure is made up of two primary components: (1) rate of growth in book value per share plus (2) the ratio of dividends declared per share to beginning book value per share. Management believes this non-GAAP measure is a useful supplement to GAAP information, providing a meaningful measure of long-term progress in creating shareholder value. It is intended to be all-inclusive regarding changes in book value per share, and uses originally reported book value per share in cases where book value per share has been adjusted, such as adoption of Accounting Standards Updates with a cumulative effect of a change in accounting.
  • Consolidated property casualty insurance results: To supplement reporting segment disclosures related to our property casualty insurance operations, we also evaluate results for those operations on a basis that includes results for our property casualty insurance and brokerage services subsidiaries. That is the total of our commercial lines, personal lines and our excess and surplus lines segment plus our reinsurance assumed operations.
  • Life insurance subsidiary results: To supplement life insurance reporting segment disclosures related to our life insurance operation, we also evaluate results for that operation on a basis that includes life insurance subsidiary investment income, or investment income plus net realized investment gains, that are also included in our investments reporting segment. We recognize that assets under management, capital appreciation and investment income are integral to evaluating the success of the life insurance segment because of the long duration of life products.
  • Statutory accounting rules: For public reporting, insurance companies prepare financial statements in accordance with GAAP. However, insurers also must calculate certain data according to statutory accounting rules as defined in the NAIC's Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual, which may be, and has been, modified by various state insurance departments. Statutory data is publicly available, and various organizations use it to calculate aggregate industry data, study industry trends and compare insurance companies.
  • Written premium: Under statutory accounting rules, property casualty written premium is the amount recorded for policies issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management analyzes trends in written premium to assess business efforts. Earned premium, used in both statutory and GAAP accounting, is calculated ratably over the policy term. The difference between written and earned premium is unearned premium.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation


Balance Sheet Reconciliation


(Dollars are per share)


Three months ended September 30,


Nine months ended September 30,


2016


2015


2016


2015

Value creation ratio:









   End of period book value


$

43.24



$

38.77



$