CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION 8-K
Table of Contents

 
 
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 OR 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report: April 30, 2008
(Date of earliest event reported)
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
         
Ohio   0-4604   31-0746871
(State or other jurisdiction   (Commission   (I.R.S. Employer
of incorporation)   File Number)   Identification No.)
     
6200 S. Gilmore Road, Fairfield, Ohio   45014-5141
(Address of principal executive offices)   (Zip Code)
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (513) 870-2000
N/A
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
o   Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
 
o   Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
 
o   Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
 
o   Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13a-4(c))
 
 

 


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition
Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
Signature
EX-99.1
EX-99.2


Table of Contents

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
On April 30, 2008, Cincinnati Financial Corporation issued the attached news release titled “Cincinnati Financial Reports First-quarter 2008 Results,” furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. On April 30, 2008, the company also distributed the attached information titled “Supplemental Financial Data,” furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. This report should not be deemed an admission as to the materiality of any information contained in the news release or supplemental financial data.
In accordance with general instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information furnished in this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(c) Exhibits
      Exhibit 99.1 - News release dated April 30, 2008, “Cincinnati Financial Reports First-quarter 2008 Results”
 
      Exhibit 99.2 - Supplemental Financial Data dated April 30, 2008
Signature
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
         
 
  CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION    
 
       
Date: April 30, 2008
  /S/Kenneth W. Stecher    
 
       
 
  Kenneth W. Stecher    
 
  Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President,    
 
  Secretary and Treasurer    
 
  (Principal Accounting Officer)    

 

EX-99.1
 

Exhibit 99.1
         
  CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION    
 
Investor Contact: Heather J. Wietzel
513-870-2768
CINF-IR@cinfin.com

Media Contact: Joan O. Shevchik
513-603-5323
Media_Inquiries@cinfin.com
Cincinnati Financial Reports First-quarter 2008 Results
Cincinnati, April 30, 2008 — Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today reported:
  First-quarter net loss of $42 million, or 26 cents per share, compared with net income of $194 million, or $1.11 per share, in the first quarter of 2007. The realized investment loss in the first quarter of 2008 included other-than-temporary impairment charges of $214 million largely due to recognition on the income statement of significant declines in market values of four equity investments. These non-cash charges lower the carrying value of these investments.
  Operating income* of $109 million, or 66 cents per share, compared with $153 million, or 88 cents per share. Catastrophe losses reduced first-quarter operating income by 17 cents compared with 1 cent in last year’s first quarter.
  Total property casualty underwriting profit of $10 million compared with strong $81 million for the first quarter of 2007.
Financial Highlights
                         
(Dollars in millions except share data)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2008     2007     Change %  
Revenue Highlights
                       
Earned premiums
  $ 780     $ 815       (4.2 )
Investment income
    152       148       2.6  
Total revenues
    704       1,031       (31.7 )
Income Statement Data
                       
Net income (loss)
  $ (42 )   $ 194     nm
Net realized investment gains and losses
    (151 )     41     nm
 
                   
Operating income*
  $ 109     $ 153       (29.0 )
 
                   
Per Share Data (diluted)
                       
Net income (loss)
  $ (0.26 )   $ 1.11     nm
Net realized investment gains and losses
    (0.92 )     0.23     nm
 
                   
Operating income*
  $ 0.66     $ 0.88       (25.0 )
 
                   
 
                       
Book value
  $ 33.40     $ 39.08       (14.5 )
Cash dividend declared
  $ 0.39     $ 0.355       9.9  
Weighted average shares outstanding
    165,105,311       174,274,157       (5.3 )
Insurance Operations Highlights
  98.6 percent first-quarter 2008 property casualty combined ratio, compared with 89.6 percent for the 2007 first-quarter.
  Catastrophe losses added 5.7 percentage points to the property casualty combined ratio for the 2008 first quarter, compared with an unusually low 0.4 percentage points for the same quarter one year ago.
  Commercial and personal lines marketplace competition continues to intensify. First-quarter 2008 property casualty net written premiums decreased 8.3 percent, reflecting softer pricing, disciplined underwriting and timing differences.
  5 cents per share contribution from life insurance operations to first-quarter operating income, down from 7 cents.
Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights
  2.6 percent growth in pretax investment income.
  Book value of $33.40 per share compared with $35.70 at year-end 2007. Invested assets and book value declined primarily on lower market values of financial sector equity holdings.
  2.93 million shares of common stock repurchased at a cost of $109 million.
Full-year 2008 Outlook Unchanged**
  Property casualty net written premiums could decline as much as 5 percent for the full year due to competitive pricing.
 
  Combined ratio could be in the 96 percent to 98 percent range for the full year.
 
  Investment income growth is expected to be below last year’s 6.6 percent increase as financial sector holdings evaluate dividend levels. Portfolio strategies continue to focus on balancing near-term income generation with long-term book value growth.
 
*   The Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures on Page 10 defines and reconciles measures presented in this release that are not based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles or Statutory Accounting Principles.
 
**   Forward-looking statements and related assumptions are subject to the risks outlined in the company’s safe harbor statement (see Page 8).
 
nm   Not meaningful


 

Challenging Markets — Insurance and Investments
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John J. Schiff, Jr., CPCU, commented, “This was a tough quarter for Cincinnati Financial as both the insurance and investment markets presented unusual challenges. Soft pricing in the property casualty insurance market pressured our growth and profitability while pressure on financial stocks in our portfolio reduced our net income and book value.
“We firmly believe — and our 55 plus year history supports our confidence — that Cincinnati’s strategies will work as designed, helping us rise above these challenges. After carefully reviewing our position, we are confirming our previously announced outlook, including all of our estimates for full-year performance. We will continue to support agents by providing local service and local decision making authority. We will continue to invest, looking for opportunities that will let us ride out this market cycle with the high level of financial strength and stability that our agents and policyholders rely on.”
Long-term Investment in Property Casualty Business
James E. Benoski, vice chairman, president and chief insurance officer, said, “Our new excess and surplus lines operation is off to a good start. It increases our underwriting capabilities, adding a new layer of flexibility to write the whole account, even when part of it isn’t a good fit for a standard market business policy. We began quoting and issuing excess and surplus business during the first quarter, adding almost $1 million to net written premiums and putting much more in the pipeline.”
“We initiated our excess and surplus business with the ability to underwrite general liability in five states. We plan to expand both coverage offerings and operating territory. By year-end, we plan to offer commercial property insurance, along with miscellaneous professional liability and excess casualty. Cincinnati agents benefit not only from prompt and efficient policy processing, but also from the ease of accessing services such as loss control and personal attention from knowledgeable underwriters. Our reputation for superb claims handling and other value-added services also is encouraging agencies to select Cincinnati’s excess and surplus lines carrier as their preferred market to serve this segment of their clients. We’re very satisfied with progress to date.”
Benoski added, “This year began with severe weather in the South and Midwest. We incurred $43 million of catastrophe losses during the quarter, quite a contrast to $3 million for last year’s first quarter. Of almost 2,500 catastrophe claims our commercial and personal policyholders reported in the five events during the quarter, approximately 85 percent are already closed. Our claims representatives’ prompt responses and personal service are creating tremendous policyholder loyalty that will help agents market Cincinnati policies in the current competitive marketplace.”
2008 Property Casualty Outlook Update
Kenneth W. Stecher, chief financial officer and executive vice president, commented, “We continue to expect our full-year 2008 results will reflect current commercial lines pricing trends, leading to as much as a 5 percent decline in net written premiums and a combined ratio in the range of 96 percent to 98 percent. Softer pricing is likely to continue to challenge us as we hold steady to our core business values of strong agency relationships, policyholder retention and accurate risk classification.
“We also continue to make deliberate decisions not to write or renew certain business. In this environment, we have been careful to maintain our underwriting discipline. Across our industry, the expectation is for full-year 2008 net written premiums to decline 0.5 percent with the combined ratio at 98.6 percent.”
Stecher noted that the combined ratio target relies on three assumptions:
  Current accident year loss and loss expense ratio excluding catastrophe losses — Will reflect the same market trends that contributed to an increase in this ratio in 2007 and are further pressuring the 2008 ratio.
  Catastrophe loss ratio — May contribute approximately 4.5 percentage points to the full-year 2008 combined ratio. Catastrophes are unpredictable for any given year. These losses have contributed on average 3.7 percentage points to the company’s combined ratio in the past 10 years, ranging from 2007’s low of 0.8 points to 1998’s high of 6.1 points.

2


 

  Savings from favorable development on prior period reserves — May benefit the full-year 2008 combined ratio by approximately 4 percentage points based on current trends. Even as market conditions soften, management continues to rely on sound actuarial analysis in determining loss and loss expense reserves.
Stecher added, “We believe this level of full-year performance will allow us to sustain our industry leading position in the commercial lines insurance marketplace. We are taking steps in our personal lines insurance operations to enhance our opportunities in the changing marketplace. We also expect our life insurance business to continue its contribution to our earnings.
“As the preferred market for our agents’ best business, we are well positioned to carry out our commitments, supporting market stability and contributing to their success. While we believe we may see a positive contribution from our new excess and surplus lines operations, our 2008 targets do not take into account any contribution. It will take some time before that operation is of sufficient size to materially influence our overall corporate results.”
Investment Performance Affected by Recent Market Activity
Schiff commented, “Our equity investing strategy has been key to the long-term growth of our assets and shareholders’ equity. We identify companies with the potential for sales, earnings and dividend growth, a strong management team and favorable outlook. Over the years, these equities have generally offered a steady flow of dividend income along with the potential for capital appreciation.
“Broad concerns about credit quality, liquidity and the general health of the economy have disrupted the financial markets, causing unusual volatility in our equity portfolio. Valuations of a number of our holdings have been significantly influenced and, in some cases, dividend payouts have been reduced. As a result, our book value declined further in the first quarter. We are making some changes in our portfolio and we took a non-cash charge to earnings to reduce our carrying cost for some holdings, including four equity investments. We adjusted our carrying value to quarter-end market value because we concluded that the decline in the value of these holdings to below our cost was ‘other than temporary.’ Other-than-temporary impairment losses represent a non-cash charge to income.
“Our bond portfolio, however, continued to hold steady, with a total value of $5.965 billion at quarter-end, up 2.0 percent from the year-end level. The flight to quality and the resulting lower interest rates for risk-free securities continued to support bond valuations, helping offset the effects of increasing risk premiums and credit spreads in the first quarter of 2008. Our focus remains on portfolio strategies to balance near-term income generation and long-term book value growth. While decisions to sell investments that no longer meet our investment criteria could have a negative impact on income in the short-term, reinvestment in securities with lower, but more secure, yields should help us weather the present storm.
“We are committed to sustaining the strong capitalization that supports our high insurer financial strength ratings, giving our agents a distinct marketing advantage for their value-oriented clients. On March 26, A.M. Best Co. affirmed our issuer credit and financial strength ratings. Best said its stable outlook on our ratings reflects our group’s ‘superior risk-adjusted capitalization and its historical ability to generate solid operating results through underwriting cycles, which will enable the group to absorb any near-term increases in volatility as a result of its investment philosophy or weather-related events.’
“Our ratio of property casualty written premiums to statutory surplus, an important measure of that financial strength, rose slightly at March 31, 2008, to 0.75 from 0.72 at year-end 2007, but remains more than 10 percent stronger than the industry average,” Schiff noted. “Cincinnati Financial has the resources and tenacity to get through times such as these in good shape.
“We returned $168 million to shareholders in the first three months of 2008 through cash dividends and repurchase activity,” Schiff concluded.

3


 

Combined Property Casualty Insurance Operations
                         
(Dollars in millions)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2008     2007     Change %  
Written premiums
  $ 776     $ 846       (8.3 )
 
                   
 
               
Earned premiums
  $ 751     $ 785       (4.3 )
 
               
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophes
    458       455       0.8  
Catastrophe loss and loss expenses
    43       3       1,230.8  
Commission expenses
    144       161       (10.9 )
Underwriting expenses
    93       82       14.5  
Policyholder dividends
    3       3       (1.7 )
 
                   
Underwriting profit
  $ 10     $ 81       (87.1 )
 
                   
 
               
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
                       
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophes
    61.0 %     57.9 %        
Catastrophe loss and loss expenses
    5.7       0.4          
 
                   
Loss and loss expenses
    66.7       58.3          
Commission expenses
    19.1       20.5          
Underwriting expenses
    12.4       10.4          
Policyholder dividends
    0.4       0.4          
 
                   
Combined ratio
    98.6 %     89.6 %        
 
                   
  8.3 percent decline in first-quarter property-casualty net written premiums reflecting softer pricing, disciplined underwriting and timing differences.
  $74 million in first-quarter 2008 new business written directly by agencies compared with $80 million in last year’s first quarter, down 7.5 percent.
  Excess and surplus lines contributed almost $1 million in net written premiums in its first quarter of operations.
  Lower level of commission expense, largely due to softer pricing, offset higher other underwriting expenses.
  1,098 agency relationships with 1,337 reporting locations marketed our insurance products at March 31, 2008, up from 1,092 agency relationships with 1,327 reporting locations at year-end 2007.
  $13 million of net savings from favorable development on prior period reserves improved the first-quarter 2008 combined ratio by 1.8 percentage points, compared with $30 million and 4.0 points for the same period in 2007.
  $43 million in first-quarter 2008 catastrophe losses, due primarily to wind and hail damage from storms in the South and Midwest.
Catastrophe Loss and Loss Expenses Incurred
                                 
(In millions, net of reinsurance)       Three months ended March 31,  
            Commercial     Personal        
Dates   Cause of loss   Region   lines     lines     Total  
2008
                               
Jan. 4-9
  Wind, hail, flood, freezing   South, Midwest   $ 3     $ 3     $ 6  
Jan. 29-30
  Wind, hail   Midwest     5       5       10  
Feb. 5-6
  Wind, hail, flood   Midwest     8       9       17  
Mar. 14
  Tornadoes, wind, hail, flood   South     5       1       6  
Mar. 15-16
  Wind, hail   South     4       4       8  
Development on 2007 and prior catastrophes     (3 )     (1 )     (4 )
 
                         
Calendar year incurred total   $ 22     $ 21     $ 43  
 
                         
 
                               
2007
                               
Jan. 12-15
  Wind, hail, ice, snow   Midwest   $ 2     $ 1     $ 3  
Feb. 14-15
  Wind, hail, ice, snow   Mid-Atlantic     1       1       2  
Feb. 23-25
  Wind, hail, ice, snow   Midwest     3       0       3  
Mar. 1-2
  Wind, hail, flood   South     6       2       8  
Development on 2006 and prior catastrophes     (2 )     (11 )     (13 )
 
                         
Calendar year incurred total   $ 10     $ (7 )   $ 3  
 
                         

4


 

Insurance Segment Highlights
Commercial Lines Insurance Operations
                         
(Dollars in millions)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2008     2007     Change %  
Written premiums
  $ 625     $ 693       (9.8 )
 
                   
 
                       
Earned premiums
  $ 574     $ 604       (4.9 )
 
                       
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophes
    343       344       (0.2 )
Catastrophe loss and loss expenses
    22       10       110.4  
Commission expenses
    109       123       (12.0 )
Underwriting expenses
    68       57       21.9  
Policyholder dividends
    3       3       (1.7 )
 
                   
Underwriting profit
  $ 29     $ 67       (56.8 )
 
                   
 
                       
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
                       
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophes
    59.7 %     56.9 %        
Catastrophe loss and loss expenses
    3.9       1.8          
 
                   
Loss and loss expenses
    63.6       58.7          
Commission expenses
    18.9       20.4          
Underwriting expenses
    11.9       9.3          
Policyholder dividends
    0.6       0.5          
 
                   
Combined ratio
    95.0 %     88.9 %        
 
                   
  9.8 percent lower first-quarter 2008 commercial lines net written premiums, primarily a result of intensifying market competition.
  $66 million in first-quarter 2008 commercial lines new business written directly by agencies compared with $72 million in last year’s first quarter, down 8.3 percent.
  95.0 percent first-quarter 2008 commercial lines combined ratio, an increase of 6.1 percentage points over first-quarter 2007 due mostly to higher catastrophe losses, lower pricing, normal loss cost inflation and higher underwriting expenses. Lower commission expenses partially offset these increases.
  3.9 percentage points of first-quarter 2008 catastrophe losses, more than double last year’s unusually low level.
  2.5 percentage point improvement in combined ratio due to savings from favorable development on prior period reserves for the first three months of both 2008 and 2007.
  Commercial lines insurance industry combined ratio for full-year 2008 estimated at 97.5 percent with decline in net written premiums estimated at 2.3 percent.
Personal Lines Insurance Operations
                         
(Dollars in millions)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2008     2007     Change %  
Written premiums
  $ 150     $ 153       (2.0 )
 
                   
 
                       
Earned premiums
  $ 177     $ 181       (2.2 )
 
                       
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophes
    115       111       3.7  
Catastrophe loss and loss expenses
    21       (7 )     nm  
Commission expenses
    35       38       (7.7 )
Underwriting expenses
    24       25       (3.6 )
 
                   
Underwriting profit (loss)
  $ (18 )   $ 14       nm
 
                   
 
                       
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
                       
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophes
    65.1 %     61.4 %        
Catastrophe loss and loss expenses
    11.6       (4.1 )        
 
                   
Loss and loss expenses
    76.7       57.3          
Commission expenses
    19.8       20.9          
Underwriting expenses
    13.6       13.8          
 
                   
Combined ratio
    110.1 %     92.0 %        
 
                   
  2.0 percent lower first-quarter 2008 personal lines net written premiums on lower policy counts, steady new business levels and pricing changes that reduced premiums per policy.
  $8 million in first-quarter 2008 personal lines new business written directly by agencies, down 0.5 percent.
  110.1 percent first-quarter 2008 personal lines combined ratio. The ratio reflects significantly higher catastrophe losses and a modest increase in the loss and loss expense ratio excluding catastrophe losses due to lower pricing and normal loss cost inflation.

5


 

  11.6 percentage-point contribution from first quarter 2008 catastrophe losses, compared with a benefit of 4.1 points in the first quarter of 2007 due to savings primarily from fourth-quarter 2006 events.
  $1 million of reserve strengthening added 0.7 percentage points to the combined ratio in the first three months of 2008, compared with 9.0 percentage points of savings from favorable development on prior period reserves for the same period last year. 2007 savings included 6.1 points in savings on prior period catastrophe loss reserves.
  Personal lines insurance industry combined ratio for full-year 2008 estimated at 99.5 percent with net written premiums rising approximately 1.4 percent.
Life Insurance Operations
                         
(In millions)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2008     2007     Change %  
Written premiums
  $ 44     $ 42       3.8  
 
                   
 
                       
Earned premiums
  $ 29     $ 30       (3.2 )
Investment income, net of expenses
    29       28       2.7  
Other income
    1       1       (45.7 )
 
                   
Total revenues, excluding realized investment gains and losses
    59       59       (1.4 )
 
                   
Contract holders benefits
    35       27       30.4  
Expenses
    12       13       (14.1 )
 
                   
Total benefits and expenses
    47       40       15.7  
 
                   
Net income before income tax and realized investment gains and losses
    12       19       (37.2 )
Income tax
    4       6       (39.5 )
 
                   
Net income before realized investment gains and losses
  $ 8     $ 13       (36.0 )
 
                   
  $44 million in first-quarter 2008 life insurance segment net written premiums. Written premiums include life insurance, annuity and accident and health premiums.
  3.2 percent increase to $35 million in written premiums for life insurance products in total.
  9.0 percent rise to $18 million in term life insurance written premiums, reflecting marketing advantages of competitive, up-to-date products, providing close personal attention and offering policies backed by financial strength and stability.
  1.5 percent rise in face amount of life policies in force to $62.803 billion at March 31, 2008, from $61.875 billion at year-end 2007.
  $5 million decrease in first-quarter 2008 operating profit, primarily due to less favorable mortality experience.
  2008 plans include redesign of all life term insurance products. In addition to the worksite term product, updates are planned for the full worksite life portfolio. These improvements support opportunities to cross-sell life insurance products to clients of the independent agencies that sell Cincinnati’s property casualty insurance policies.

6


 

Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights
Investment Operations
                         
(In millions)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2008     2007     Change %  
Investment income:
                       
Interest
  $ 76     $ 76       0.5  
Dividends
    73       72       1.6  
Other
    5       3       35.7  
Investment expenses
    (2 )     (3 )     40.0  
 
                   
Total investment income, net of expenses
    152       148       2.6  
 
                   
Investment interest credited to contract holders
    (16 )     (14 )     6.0  
 
                   
Realized investment gains and losses summary:
                       
Realized investment gains and losses
    (16 )     61     nm
Change in fair value of securities with embedded derivatives
    (2 )     1     nm
Other-than-temporary impairment charges
    (214 )     0     nm
 
                   
Total realized investment gains and losses
    (232 )     62     nm
 
                   
Investment operations income (loss)
  $ (96 )   $ 196     nm
 
                   
  2.6 percent growth in first-quarter 2008 net investment income due to cash flow for new investments that produced higher interest and dividend income.
  $232 realized investment loss in first-quarter 2008 compared with realized investment gain of $62 million in first-quarter 2007.
  First-quarter pretax realized investment loss included $214 million non-cash charge for other-than-temporary impairments that recognize significant market value declines, largely for four equity holdings.
                 
(Dollars in millions except share data)   At March 31,     At December 31,  
    2008     2007  
Balance sheet data
               
Invested assets
  $ 11,704     $ 12,261  
Total assets
    15,945       16,637  
Short-term debt
    69       69  
Long-term debt
    791       791  
Shareholders’ equity
    5,449       5,929  
Book value per share
    33.40       35.70  
 
               
Debt-to-capital ratio
    13.6 %     12.7 %
 
               
 
               
    Three months ended March 31,  
    2008     2007  
Performance measures
               
Comprehensive income (loss)
  $ (313 )   $ 13  
Return on equity, annualized
    (3.0 )%     11.5 %
Return on equity, annualized, based on comprehensive income (loss)
    (22.1 )     0.8  
  $11.704 billion in investment assets at March 31, 2008, compared with $12.261 billion at year-end 2007. The decrease in investment assets was largely due to lower market valuations of equity holdings, primarily in the financial sector, reflecting broad concerns across the marketplace about credit quality, liquidity and the general health of the economy.
  Shareholders’ equity declined to $5.449 billion, or $33.40 per share, at March 31, 2008, down from $5.929 billion, or $35.70, at year-end 2007, largely due to lower market values for investment assets.
  Lower market values were the primary reason for the comprehensive loss for the first three months of 2008. Net and comprehensive loss resulted in negative returns on equity for the 2008 first quarter.
  $4.027 billion in statutory surplus for the property casualty insurance group at March 31, 2008, compared with $4.307 billion at year-end 2007. The ratio of common stock to statutory surplus for the property casualty insurance group portfolio was 82.3 percent at March 31, 2008, compared with 86.0 percent at year-end 2007.
  27.4 percent ratio of investment securities held at the holding-company level to total holding-company-only assets at March 31, 2008, comfortably within management’s below-40 percent target.
  Repurchases of the company’s common stock totaled 2.93 million shares at a cost of $109 million in the first quarter. Approximately 9 million shares remain authorized for repurchase.
For additional information or to register for this morning’s conference call webcast, please visit www.cinfin.com/investors.

7


 

This is our “Safe Harbor” statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 21. Although we often review and update our forward-looking statements when events warrant, we caution our readers that we undertake no obligation to do so.
Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:
  Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes
 
  Increased frequency and/or severity of claims
 
  Sustained decline in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company’s equity portfolio and book value; in particular a sustained decline in the market value of Fifth Third shares, a significant equity holding
 
  Securities laws that could limit the manner, timing and volume of our investment transactions
 
  Recession or other economic conditions or regulatory, accounting or tax changes resulting in lower demand for insurance products
 
  Events, such as the subprime mortgage lending crisis, that lead to:
 
    Significant decline in the value of a particular security or group of securities, such as our financial sector holdings, and impairment of the asset(s)
 
    Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
 
  Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company’s ability to generate growth in investment income or interest-rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments
 
  Inaccurate estimates or assumptions used for critical accounting estimates
 
  Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company’s future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
 
  Changing consumer buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages
 
  Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company’s relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company’s opportunities for growth, such as:
 
    Downgrade of the company’s financial strength ratings
Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult or
 
    Perceptions that the company’s level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
 
  Delays or inadequacies in the development, implementation, performance and benefits of technology projects and enhancements
 
  Ability to obtain adequate reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for non-payment or delay in payment by reinsurers
 
  Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company’s premium growth rate
 
  Underwriting and pricing methods adopted by competitors that could allow them to identify and flexibly price risks, which could decrease our competitive advantages
 
  Personal lines pricing and loss trends that lead management to conclude that this segment could not attain sustainable profitability, which could prevent the capitalization of policy acquisition costs
 
  Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies that:
 
    Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
 
    Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
 
    Increase our expenses
 
    Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
 
    Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
 
    Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace or
 
    Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents
 
  Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings
 
  Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
 
  Investment activities or market value fluctuations that trigger restrictions applicable to the parent company under the Investment Company Act of 1940
 
  Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe, terrorism or construction delays, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location
Further, the company’s insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. The company also is subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for its common stock, such as recent measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.
 
Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers property and casualty insurance, our main business, through our three standard market companies, The Cincinnati Insurance Company, The Cincinnati Indemnity Company and The Cincinnati Casualty Company. The Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance Company provides excess and surplus lines property and casualty insurance. The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company markets life and disability income insurance and annuities. CSU Producer Resources Inc., is our excess and surplus lines brokerage, serving the same local independent agencies that offer our standard market policies. CFC Investment Company offers commercial leasing and financing services. CinFin Capital Management Company provides asset management services to institutions, corporations and individuals. For additional information about the company, please visit www.cinfin.com.
     
Mailing Address:
  Street Address:
P.O. Box 145496
  6200 South Gilmore Road
Cincinnati, Ohio 45250-5496
  Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141

8


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Condensed Balance Sheets and Statements of Operations (unaudited)
                 
(Dollars in millions)   March 31,     December 31,  
    2008     2007  
             
Assets
               
Investments
  $ 11,704     $ 12,261  
Cash and cash equivalents
    237       226  
Premiums receivable
    1,113       1,107  
Reinsurance receivable
    757       754  
Other assets
    2,134       2,289  
 
           
Total assets
  $ 15,945     $ 16,637  
 
           
 
               
Liabilities
               
Insurance reserves
  $ 5,524     $ 5,445  
Unearned premiums
    1,585       1,564  
Deferred income tax
    750       977  
6.125% senior notes due 2034
    371       371  
6.9% senior debentures due 2028
    28       28  
6.92% senior debentures due 2028
    392       392  
Other liabilities
    1,846       1,931  
 
           
Total liabilities
    10,496       10,708  
 
           
 
               
Shareholders’ Equity
               
Common stock and paid-in capital
    1,448       1,442  
Retained earnings
    3,298       3,404  
Accumulated other comprehensive income
    1,880       2,151  
Treasury stock
    (1,177 )     (1,068 )
 
           
Total shareholders’ equity
    5,449       5,929  
 
           
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity
  $ 15,945     $ 16,637  
 
           

 

                 
(Dollars in millions except per share data)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2008     2007  
     
Revenues
               
Earned premiums
  $ 780     $ 815  
Investment income, net of expenses
    152       148  
Realized investment gains and losses
    (232 )     62  
Other income
    4       6  
 
           
Total revenues
    704       1,031  
 
           
 
               
Benefits and Expenses
               
Insurance losses and policyholder benefits
    536       484  
Commissions
    150       170  
Other operating expenses
    118       106  
 
           
Total benefits and expenses
    804       760  
 
           
 
               
Income Before Income Taxes
    (100 )     271  
 
               
Provision for Income Taxes
    (58 )     77  
 
           
Net Income (Loss)
  $ (42 )   $ 194  
 
           
 
               
Per Common Share
               
Net income (loss)—basic
  $ (0.26 )   $ 1.12  
Net income (loss)—diluted
  $ (0.26 )   $ 1.11  
* * *

9


 

Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and
Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures
(See attached tables for 2008 reconciliations; prior-period reconciliations available at www.cinfin.com/investors.)
Cincinnati Financial Corporation prepares its public financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). Statutory data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ (NAIC) Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP data.
Management uses certain non-GAAP and non-statutory financial measures to evaluate its primary business areas — property casualty insurance, life insurance and investments — when analyzing both GAAP and certain non-GAAP measures may improve understanding of trends in the underlying business, helping avoid incorrect or misleading assumptions and conclusions about the success or failure of company strategies. Management adjustments to GAAP measures generally: apply to non-recurring events that are unrelated to business performance and distort short-term results; involve values that fluctuate based on events outside of management’s control; or relate to accounting refinements that affect comparability between periods, creating a need to analyze data on the same basis.
  Operating income: Operating income is calculated by excluding net realized investment gains and losses (defined as realized investment gains and losses after applicable federal and state income taxes) from net income. Management evaluates operating income to measure the success of pricing, rate and underwriting strategies. While realized investment gains (or losses) are integral to the company’s insurance operations over the long term, the determination to realize investment gains or losses in any period may be subject to management’s discretion and is independent of the insurance underwriting process. Also, under applicable GAAP accounting requirements, gains and losses can be recognized from certain changes in market values of securities without actual realization. Management believes that the level of realized investment gains or losses for any particular period, while it may be material, may not fully indicate the performance of ongoing underlying business operations in that period.
  For these reasons, many investors and shareholders consider operating income to be one of the more meaningful measures for evaluating insurance company performance. Equity analysts who report on the insurance industry and the company generally focus on this metric in their analyses. The company presents operating income so that all investors have what management believes to be a useful supplement to GAAP information.
  Statutory accounting rules: For public reporting, insurance companies prepare financial statements in accordance with GAAP. However, insurers also must calculate certain data according to statutory accounting rules as defined in the NAIC’s Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual, which may be, and has been, modified by various state insurance departments. Statutory data is publicly available, and various organizations use it to calculate aggregate industry data, study industry trends and compare insurance companies.
  Written premium: Under statutory accounting rules, property casualty written premium is the amount recorded for policies issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management analyzes trends in written premium to assess business efforts. Earned premium, used in both statutory and GAAP accounting, is calculated ratably over the policy term. The difference between written and earned premium is unearned premium.
  Written premium adjustment — statutory basis only: In 2002, the company refined its estimation process for matching property casualty written premiums to policy effective dates, which added $117 million to 2002 written premiums. To better assess ongoing business trends, management may exclude this adjustment when analyzing trends in written premiums and statutory ratios that make use of written premiums.

10


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Quarterly Net Income Reconciliation
                 
(In millions except per share data)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2008     2007  
Net income
  $ (42 )   $ 194  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    (151 )     41  
 
           
Operating income
    109       153  
Less catastrophe losses
    (28 )     (2 )
 
           
Operating income before catastrophe losses
  $ 137     $ 155  
 
           
 
               
Diluted per share data:
               
Net income
  $ (0.26 )   $ 1.11  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    (0.92 )     0.23  
 
           
Operating income
    0.66       0.88  
Less catastrophe losses
    (0.17 )     (0.01 )
 
           
Operating income before catastrophe losses
  $ 0.83     $ 0.89  
 
           
Quarterly Property Casualty Reconciliation
                         
(Dollars in millions)   Three months ended March 31, 2008  
    Combined     Commercial     Personal  
Premiums:
                       
Adjusted written premiums (statutory)
  $ 773     $ 622     $ 150  
Written premium adjustment — statutory only
    3       3        
 
                 
Reported written premiums (statutory)
    776       625       150  
Unearned premiums change
    (25 )     (51 )     27  
 
                 
Earned premiums
  $ 751     $ 574     $ 177  
 
                 
 
                       
Statutory combined ratio :
                       
Statutory combined ratio
    97.4 %     93.3 %     110.8 %
Less catastrophe losses
    5.7       3.9       11.6  
 
                 
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
    91.7 %     89.4 %     99.2 %
 
                 
 
                       
Commission expense ratio
    17.7 %     16.5 %     22.3 %
Other expense ratio
    12.9       13.2       11.8  
 
                 
Statutory expense ratio
    30.6 %     29.7 %     34.1 %
 
                 
 
                       
GAAP combined ratio
    98.6 %     95.0 %     110.1 %
 
                 

11

EX-99.2
 

Exhibit 99.2
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Supplemental Financial Data
March 31, 2008
First Quarter
6200 South Gilmore Road
Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141
www.cinfin.com
         
Investor Contact:   Media Contact:   Shareholder Contact:
Heather J. Wietzel   Joan O. Shevchik   Jerry L. Litton
(513) 870-2768   (513) 603-5323   (513) 870-2639
                                 
                            Standard &
    A.M. Best   Fitch   Moody's   Poor's
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
                               
Corporate Debt
  aa-     A+       A2       A  
 
                               
The Cincinnati Insurance Companies
                               
Insurer Financial Strength
                               
 
                               
Property Casualty Group
                               
Standard Market Subsidiaries:
    A++           Aa3   AA-
The Cincinnati Insurance Company
    A++     AA   Aa3   AA-
The Cincinnati Indemnity Company
    A++     AA   Aa3   AA-
The Cincinnati Casualty Company
    A++     AA   Aa3   AA-
Excess and Surplus Lines Subsidiary:
                               
The Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance Company
    A                    
 
                               
The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company
    A+     AA         AA-
Ratings are as of April 29, 2008, under continuing review and subject to change and/or affirmation. For the latest ratings, select Ratings tab on www.cinfin.com.
The consolidated financial statements and financial exhibits that follow are unaudited. These consolidated financial statements and exhibits should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and notes included our periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The results of operations for interim periods may not be indicative of results to be expected for the full year.

 


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Supplemental Financial Data
First-Quarter 2008
     
    Page
Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures
  3
 
   
Consolidated
   
Quick Reference
  4
Consolidated Statements of Income
  5
CFC and Subsidiary Consolidation
  6
Consolidated Balance Sheets
  7
Quarterly Net Income Reconciliation
  8
Top Holdings — Common Stocks
  9
CFC Subsidiaries — Selected Balance Sheet Data
  10
 
   
Property Casualty Insurance Operations
   
GAAP Statements of Income
  11
Statutory Statements of Income
  12
Statutory Quarterly Analysis — Consolidated
  13
Statutory Quarterly Analysis — Commercial Lines
  14
Statutory Quarterly Analysis — Personal Lines
  15
Direct Written Premiums by Line of Business and State
  16
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Commercial Lines of Business
  17
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Personal Lines of Business
  18
Quarterly Detailed Loss Analysis
  19
 
   
Reconciliation Data
   
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Consolidated
  20
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Commercial Lines
  21
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Personal Lines
  22
 
   
Life Insurance Operations
   
GAAP Statements of Income
  23
Statutory Statements of Income
  24
Expenses as a Percentage of Premium
  25

 


 

Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and
Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures
Cincinnati Financial Corporation prepares its public financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). Statutory data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ (NAIC) Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP data.
Management uses certain non-GAAP and non-statutory financial measures to evaluate its primary business areas — property casualty insurance, life insurance and investments — when analyzing both GAAP and certain non-GAAP measures may improve understanding of trends in the underlying business, helping avoid incorrect or misleading assumptions and conclusions about the success or failure of company strategies. Management adjustments to GAAP measures generally: apply to non-recurring events that are unrelated to business performance and distort short-term results; involve values that fluctuate based on events outside of management’s control; or relate to accounting refinements that affect comparability between periods, creating a need to analyze data on the same basis.
  Operating income: Operating income is calculated by excluding net realized investment gains and losses (defined as realized investment gains and losses after applicable federal and state income taxes) from net income. Management evaluates operating income to measure the success of pricing, rate and underwriting strategies. While realized investment gains (or losses) are integral to the company’s insurance operations over the long term, the determination to realize investment gains or losses in any period may be subject to management’s discretion and is independent of the insurance underwriting process. Also, under applicable GAAP accounting requirements, gains and losses can be recognized from certain changes in market values of securities and embedded derivatives without actual realization. Management believes that the level of realized investment gains or losses for any particular period, while it may be material, may not fully indicate the performance of ongoing underlying business operations in that period.
 
    For these reasons, many investors and shareholders consider operating income to be one of the more meaningful measures for evaluating insurance company performance. Equity analysts who report on the insurance industry and the company generally focus on this metric in their analyses. The company presents operating income so that all investors have what management believes to be a useful supplement to GAAP information.
 
  Statutory accounting rules: For public reporting, insurance companies prepare financial statements in accordance with GAAP. However, insurers also must calculate certain data according to statutory accounting rules as defined in the NAIC’s Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual, which may be, and has been, modified by various state insurance departments. Statutory data is publicly available, and various organizations use it to calculate aggregate industry data, study industry trends and compare insurance companies.
 
  Written premium: Under statutory accounting rules, property casualty written premium is the amount recorded for policies issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management analyzes trends in written premium to assess business efforts. Earned premium, used in both statutory and GAAP accounting, is calculated ratably over the policy term. The difference between written and earned premium is unearned premium.
 
  Written premium adjustment - statutory basis only: In 2002, the company refined its estimation process for matching property casualty written premiums to policy effective dates, which added $117 million to 2002 written premiums. To better assess ongoing business trends, management may exclude this adjustment when analyzing trends in written premiums and statutory ratios that make use of written premiums.

3


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Quick Reference — First Quarter 2008
(all data shown is for the three months ended or as of March 31, 2008)
(Based on reported data — see Pages 20-22 for adjusted data)
         
(Dollars in millions except share data)        
Revenues:
       
 
       
Commercial lines net written premiums
  $ 625  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (9.8 )%
Personal lines net written premiums
  $ 150  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (2.0 )%
Property casualty net written premiums
  $ 776  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (8.3 )%
Commercial lines net earned premiums
  $ 574  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (4.9 )%
Personal lines net earned premiums
  $ 177  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (2.2) %
Property casualty net earned premiums
  $ 751  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (4.3 )%
Life and accident and health net earned premiums
  $ 28  
Year-over-year percentage change
    3.5 %
Investment income
  $ 152  
Year-over-year percentage change
    2.6 %
Realized gains on investments
  $ (232 )
Year-over-year percentage change
    (474.0 )%
Other income
  $ 4  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (33.5 )%
Total revenues
  $ 704  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (31.6 )%
 
       
Income:
       
 
       
Operating income
  $ 109  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (29.0 )%
Net realized investment gains and losses
  $ (151 )
Year-over-year percentage change
    (466.9 )%
Net income (loss)
  $ (42 )
Year-over-year percentage change
    (121.8 %)
 
       
Per share (diluted):
       
 
       
Operating income
  $ 0.66  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (25.0 )%
Net realized investment gains and losses
  $ (0.92 )
Year-over-year percentage change
    (483.3 )%
Net income (loss)
  $ (0.26 )
Year-over-year percentage change
    (123.2 )%
Book value
  $ 33.40  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (14.5 )%
Weighted average shares — diluted and basic
    165,105,311  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (4.4 )%
 
       
Benefits and expenses:
       
 
       
Commercial lines loss and loss expenses
  $ 365  
Year-over-year percentage change
    3.1 %
Personal lines loss and loss expenses
  $ 136  
Year-over-year percentage change
    31.0 %
Property casualty loss and loss expenses
  $ 501  
Year-over-year percentage change
    9.5 %
Life and accident and health losses and policy benefits
  $ 35  
Year-over-year percentage change
    30.4 %
Operating expenses
  $ 256  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (1.9 )%
Interest expenses
  $ 12  
Year-over-year percentage change
    (3.1 )%
Total expenses
  $ 804  
Year-over-year percentage change
    6.1 %
Net loss before income taxes
  $ (100 )
Year-over-year percentage change
    (137.1 )%
Total income tax benefit
  $ (58 )
Year-over-year percentage change
    175.9 %
Effective tax rate benefit
    (57.9 %)
 
       
Ratios:
       
 
       
Commercial lines GAAP combined ratio
    95.0 %
Personal lines GAAP combined ratio
    110.1 %
Property casualty GAAP combined ratio
    98.6 %
 
       
Commercial lines STAT combined ratio
    93.3 %
Personal lines STAT combined ratio
    110.8 %
Property casualty STAT combined ratio
    97.4 %
 
       
Return on equity based upon net income
    (3.0 )%
Return on equity based upon operating income
    7.6 %
 
       
Balance Sheet:
       
 
       
Fixed maturity investments
  $ 5,965  
Equity securities
    5,629  
Short-term investments
    51  
Other invested assets
    59  
 
     
Total invested assets
  $ 11,704  
 
     
 
       
Property casualty and life loss and loss expense reserves
  $ 4,019  
Total debt
    860  
Shareholders’ equity
    5,449  
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

4


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Consolidated Statements of Income
                                 
    For the Three Months Ended March 31,
    2008   2007   Change   % Change
 
Revenues:
                               
Premiums earned:
                               
Property casualty
  $ 792,374,432     $ 827,290,658     $ (34,916,226 )     (4.22 )
Life
    40,068,179       38,946,474       1,121,705       2.88  
Accident health
    1,868,167       1,758,851       109,316       6.22  
Premiums ceded
    (54,095,187 )     (53,348,919 )     (746,268 )     (1.40 )
Total premiums earned
    780,215,591       814,647,064       (34,431,473 )     (4.23 )
Investment income
    152,233,957       148,394,366       3,839,591       2.59  
Realized gain on investments
    (232,536,318 )     62,178,232       (294,714,550 )     (473.98 )
Other income
    3,781,644       5,688,868       (1,907,224 )     (33.53 )
Total revenues
  $ 703,694,874     $ 1,030,908,530     $ (327,213,656 )     (31.74 )
 
                               
Benefits & expenses:
                               
Losses & policy benefits
  $ 562,934,824     $ 515,031,815     $ 47,903,009       9.30  
Reinsurance recoveries
    (27,137,337 )     (30,808,929 )     3,671,592       (11.92 )
Commissions
    150,014,952       170,152,772       (20,137,820 )     (11.84 )
Other operating expenses
    90,720,024       88,203,959       2,516,065       2.85  
Interest expense
    12,687,472       13,092,923       (405,451 )     (3.10 )
Taxes, licenses & fees
    20,760,970       19,942,931       818,039       4.10  
Incr deferred acq expense
    (5,718,022 )     (15,654,691 )     9,936,669       (63.47 )
Total expenses
  $ 804,262,883     $ 759,960,780     $ 44,302,103       5.83  
Income (loss) before income taxes
  $ (100,568,009 )   $ 270,947,750     $ (371,515,759 )     (137.12 )
 
                               
Provision for income taxes:
                               
Current operating income
  $ 103,422,660     $ 55,525,989     $ 47,896,671       86.26  
Realized investments gains and losses
    (81,674,979 )     21,059,042       (102,734,021 )     (487.84 )
Deferred
    (80,038,415 )     234,546       (80,272,961 )     nm
Total income taxes
  $ (58,290,734 )   $ 76,819,577     $ (135,110,311 )     (175.88 )
 
                               
Net income (loss)
  $ (42,277,275 )   $ 194,128,173     $ (236,405,448 )     (121.78 )
Comprehensive net income
  $ (314,185,205 )   $ 8,067,684     $ (322,252,889 )     (3,994.37 )  
 
                               
Operating income
  $ 108,584,064     $ 153,008,983     $ (44,424,919 )     (29.03 )
Net realized investments gains and losses
  $ (150,861,339 )   $ 41,119,190     $ (191,980,529 )     (466.89 )
 
                               
Net income per share:
                               
Operating income
  $ 0.66     $ 0.88     $ (0.22 )     (25.00 )
Net realized investments gains and losses
    (0.92 )     0.24       (1.16 )     (483.33 )
Net income (loss) per share (basic)
  $ (0.26 )   $ 1.12     $ (1.38 )     (123.21 )
Operating income
  $ 0.66     $ 0.88     $ (0.22 )     (25.00 )
Net realized investments gains and losses
    (0.92 )     0.23       (1.15 )     (500.00 )
Net income (loss) per share (diluted)
  $ (0.26 )   $ 1.11     $ (1.37 )     (123.42 )
Dividends per share:
                               
Paid
  $ 0.355     $ 0.335     $ 0.02       5.97  
Declared
    0.390       0.355       0.04       9.86  
Number of shares:
                               
Weighted avg — basic
    165,105,311       172,648,988       (7,543,677 )     (4.37 )
Weighted avg — diluted
    165,105,311       174,274,157       (9,168,846 )     (5.26 )
Due to net loss from operations, basic and diluted shares are the same.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

5


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Statements of Income for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2008
                                                                 
    Total   CFC   CONSOL P&C   CLIC   CFC-I   CINFIN   C-SUPR   ELIM
Revenues:
                                                               
Premiums earned:
                                                               
Property casualty
  $ 792,374,432     $     $ 792,726,747     $     $     $     $     $ (352,315 )
Life
    40,068,179                   40,068,179                          
Accident health
    1,868,167                   1,868,167                          
Premiums ceded
    (54,095,187 )           (41,605,790 )     (12,489,397 )                        
Total earned premium
    780,215,591             751,120,957       29,446,949                         (352,315 )
Investment income
    152,233,957       25,533,643       98,005,135       29,080,394       120,482       73,957       18,079       (597,733 )
Realized gain on investments
    (232,536,318 )     (80,895,546 )     (141,711,858 )     (9,802,238 )     101,191       (330,672 )           102,805  
Other income
    3,781,644       2,397,287       812,916       742,390       2,211,844       601,217       50,626       (3,034,636 )
Total revenues
  $ 703,694,874     $ (52,964,616 )   $ 708,227,150     $ 49,467,495     $ 2,433,517     $ 344,502     $ 68,705     $ (3,881,879 )
 
                                                               
Benefits & expenses:
                                                               
Losses & policy benefits
  $ 562,934,824     $     $ 523,598,838     $ 39,885,436     $     $     $     $ (549,450 )
Reinsurance recoveries
    (27,137,337 )           (22,779,189 )     (4,358,148 )                        
Commissions
    150,014,952       27,500       143,705,340       6,282,112                          
Other operating expenses
    90,720,024       5,737,805       80,238,330       6,288,651       1,216,345       136,873       415,083       (3,313,063 )
Interest expense
    12,687,472       12,243,043       88,250             701,054                   (344,875 )
Taxes, licenses & fees
    20,760,970       303,054       19,478,307       1,012,324       8,197       (48,750 )     7,838        
Incr deferred acq expenses
    (5,718,022 )           (3,681,293 )     (2,036,729 )                        
Total expenses
  $ 804,262,883     $ 18,311,402     $ 740,648,583     $ 47,073,646     $ 1,925,596     $ 88,123     $ 422,921     $ (4,207,388 )
 
                                                               
Income before income taxes
  $ (100,568,009 )   $ (71,276,018 )   $ (32,421,433 )   $ 2,393,849     $ 507,921     $ 256,379     $ (354,216 )   $ 325,509  
 
                                                               
Provision for income taxes:
                                                               
Current operating income
  $ 103,422,660     $ 25,487,163     $ 69,893,041     $ 7,672,506     $ 180,587     $ 302,343     $ (112,980 )   $  
Capital gains/losses
    (81,674,979 )     (28,368,441 )     (49,815,437 )     (3,410,783 )     35,417       (115,735 )            
Deferred
    (80,038,415 )     (28,332,796 )     (48,124,851 )     (3,583,310 )     12,010       (113,696 )     (9,701 )     113,929  
Total income tax
  $ (58,290,734 )   $ (31,214,074 )   $ (28,047,247 )   $ 678,413     $ 228,014     $ 72,912     $ (122,681 )   $ 113,929  
 
                                                               
Net income — current year
  $ (42,277,275 )   $ (40,061,944 )   $ (4,374,186 )   $ 1,715,436     $ 279,907     $ 183,467     $ (231,535 )   $ 211,580  
 
                                                               
Net income — prior year
  $ 194,128,173     $ 19,131,342     $ 153,929,611     $ 17,938,221     $ 616,275     $ 260,999     $     $ 2,251,725  
 
                                                               
Change in net income
    -121.8 %     -309.4 %     -102.8 %     -90.4 %     -54.6 %     -29.7 %     N/A          
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

6


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Consolidated Balance Sheets
                 
    March 31,   December 31,
(Dollars in millions except per share data)   2008   2007
 
  (unaudited)        
Assets
               
Investments
               
Fixed maturities, at fair value (amortized cost: 2008—$5,924; 2007—$5,783) (includes securities pledged to creditors: 2008—$622; 2007—$745)
  $ 5,965     $ 5,848  
Equity securities, at fair value (cost: 2007—$2,975; 2006—$2,621)
    5,629       6,249  
Short-term investments, at fair value (amortized cost: 2008—$51; 2007—$101)
    51       101  
Other invested assets
    59       63  
     
Total investments
    11,704       12,261  
 
               
Cash and cash equivalents
    237       226  
Securities lending collateral
    619       760  
Investment income receivable
    118       124  
Finance receivable
    84       92  
Premiums receivable
    1,113       1,107  
Reinsurance receivable
    757       754  
Prepaid reinsurance premiums
    13       13  
Deferred policy acquisition costs
    472       461  
Land, building and equipment, net, for company use (accumulated depreciation: 2008—$284; 2007—$276)
    242       239  
Other assets
    49       72  
Separate accounts
    537       528  
     
Total assets
  $ 15,945     $ 16,637  
     
 
               
Liabilities
               
Insurance reserves
               
Losses and loss expense
  $ 4,019     $ 3,967  
Life policy reserves
    1,505       1,478  
Unearned premiums
    1,585       1,564  
Securities lending payable
    635       760  
Other liabilities
    605       574  
Deferred income tax
    750       977  
Notes payable
    69       69  
6.125% senior debenture due 2034
    371       371  
6.90% senior debenture due 2028
    28       28  
6.92% senior debenture due 2028
    392       392  
Separate accounts
    537       528  
     
Total liabilities
    10,496       10,708  
     
 
               
Shareholders’ equity
               
Common stock, par value—$2 per share; authorized: 2008—500 million shares, 2007—500 million shares; issued: 2008—196 million shares, 2007—196 million shares
    393       393  
Paid-in capital
    1,055       1,049  
Retained Earnings
    3,298       3,404  
Accumulated other comprehensive income
    1,880       2,151  
Treasury stock at cost (2008—33 million shares, 2007—30 million shares)
    (1,177 )     (1,068 )
     
Total shareholders’ equity
    5,449       5,929  
     
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity
  $ 15,945     $ 16,637  
     
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

7


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Quarterly Net Income Reconciliation
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(In millions except per share data)   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08   12/31/07   9/30/07   6/30/07   3/31/07     6/30/08   6/30/07     9/30/08   9/30/07     12/31/08   12/31/07
                   
Net income (loss)
                          $ (42 )   $ 187     $ 124     $ 351     $ 194               $ 545               $ 669               $ 855  
Net realized investment gains and losses
                            (151 )     8       10       187       41                 228                 238                 245  
                   
Operating income
                            109       179       114       164       153                 317                 431                 610  
Less catastrophe losses
                            (28 )     1       (9 )     (7 )     (2 )               (9 )               (18 )               (17 )
                   
Operating income before catastrophe losses
                          $ 137     $ 178     $ 123     $ 171     $ 155               $ 326               $ 449               $ 627  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Diluted per share data
                                                                                                                     
Net income (loss)
                          $ (0.26 )   $ 1.11     $ 0.72     $ 2.02     $ 1.11               $ 3.13               $ 3.86               $ 4.97  
Net realized investment gains and losses
                            (0.92 )     0.04       0.06       1.08       0.23                 1.31                 1.37                 1.43  
                   
Operating income
                            0.66       1.07       0.66       0.94       0.88                 1.82                 2.49                 3.54  
Less catastrophe losses
                            (0.17 )     0.01       (0.05 )     (0.04 )     (0.01 )               (0.05 )               (0.10 )               (0.10 )
                   
Operating income before catastrophe losses
                          $ 0.83     $ 1.06     $ 0.71     $ 0.98     $ 0.89               $ 1.87               $ 2.59               $ 3.64  
                   
Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

8


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Top Holdings — Common Stocks
                                 
    As of and for the three months ended March 31, 2008
                            Earned
            Fair   Percent of   dividend
(Dollars in millions)   Cost   value   fair value   income
 
Fifth Third Bancorp
  $ 185     $ 1,408       26.3 %   $ 30  
The Procter & Gamble Company
    206       527       9.8       3  
Exxon Mobil Corporation
    58       437       8.2       2  
U.S. Bancorp
    270       338       6.3       4  
PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
    62       308       5.8       3  
Johnson & Johnson
    220       262       4.9       2  
AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.
    113       248       4.6       4  
Wells Fargo & Company
    128       187       3.5       2  
Wyeth
    62       185       3.4       1  
Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc.
    64       148       2.8       1  
General Electric Co.
    106       116       2.2       1  
Chevron Corporation
    56       113       2.1       1  
Huntington Bancshares Inc
    111       111       2.1       3  
All other common stock holdings
    811       966       18.0       11  
     
Total
  $ 2,452     $ 5,354       100.0 %   $ 68  
     
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

9


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Subsidiaries
Selected Balance Sheet Data
                                                                 
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/2008   9/30/2008   6/30/2008   3/31/2008   12/31/2007   9/30/2007   6/30/2007   3/31/2007
 
Cincinnati Insurance Property Casualty Group
                                                               
Fixed Maturities and Equities (Fair Value)
  $     $     $     $ 8,628     $ 8,940     $ 9,586     $ 9,850     $ 9,837  
Fixed Maturities — Pretax Net Unrealized Gain (Loss)
                      39       58       23       (30 )     44  
Equities — Pretax Net Unrealized Gain (Loss)
                      1,831       2,077       2,657       2,917       3,017  
Loss and Loss Expense Reserves — STAT
                      3,448       3,398       3,461       3,374       3,373  
Surplus — STAT
                      4,027       4,307       4,782       4,937       4,741  
 
                                                               
The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company
                                                               
Fixed Maturities and Equities (Fair Value)
  $     $     $     $ 1,841     $ 1,887     $ 1,952     $ 1,922     $ 1,938  
Fixed Maturities — Pretax Net Unrealized Gain (Loss)
                      0       6       4       (4 )     20  
Equities — Pretax Net Unrealized Gain (Loss)
                      127       162       225       254       305  
Equity — GAAP
                      661       685       724       730       739  
Surplus — STAT
                      453       477       485       491       483  
                                                                 
    12/31/2006   9/30/2006   6/30/2006   3/31/2006   12/31/2005   9/30/2005   6/30/2005   3/31/2005
 
Cincinnati Insurance Property Casualty Group
                                                               
Fixed Maturities and Equities (Fair Value)
  $ 9,882     $ 9,393     $ 8,987     $ 9,261     $ 8,947     $ 8,833     $ 8,802     $ 8,710  
Fixed Maturities — Pretax Net Unrealized Gain (Loss)
    47       51       (55 )     2       50       86       152       99  
Equities — Pretax Net Unrealized Gain (Loss)
    3,166       2,859       2,621       2,758       2,803       2,807       2,903       2,931  
Loss and Loss Expense Reserves — STAT
    3,356       3,314       3,237       3,169       3,111       3,150       3,065       3,031  
Surplus — STAT
    4,750       4,607       4,342       4,334       4,220       4,224       4,180       4,065  
 
                                                               
The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company
                                                               
Fixed Maturities and Equities (Fair Value)
  $ 1,916     $ 1,893     $ 1,803     $ 1,827     $ 1,788     $ 1,797     $ 1,748     $ 1,688  
Fixed Maturities — Pretax Net Unrealized Gain (Loss)
    15       17       (17 )     6       31       45       70       53  
Equities — Pretax Net Unrealized Gain (Loss)
    307       271       238       256       266       274       275       257  
Equity — GAAP
    719       688       652       666       651       348       655       622  
Surplus — STAT
    479       461       459       470       451       447       447       440  
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

10


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group
GAAP Statements of Income
                                 
    For the Three Months Ended March 31,
    2008   2007   Change   % Change
 
Revenues:
                               
Premiums earned:
                               
Property casualty
  $ 792,726,747     $ 827,572,247     $ (34,845,500 )     (4.21 )
Premiums ceded
    (41,605,790 )     (43,062,577 )     1,456,787       (3.38 )
Total premiums earned
    751,120,957       784,509,670       (33,388,713 )     (4.26 )
Investment income
    98,005,135       96,609,154       1,395,981       1.44  
Realized gain on investments
    (141,711,858 )     29,908,765       (171,620,623 )     (573.81 )
Other income
    812,916       1,587,659       (774,743 )     (48.80 )
Total revenues
  $ 708,227,150     $ 912,615,248     $ (204,388,098 )     (22.40 )
 
                               
Benefits & expenses:
                               
Losses & policy benefits
  $ 523,598,838     $ 478,692,221     $ 44,906,617       9.38  
Reinsurance recoveries
    (22,779,189 )     (21,156,004 )     (1,623,185 )     7.67  
Commissions
    143,705,340       161,213,497       (17,508,157 )     (10.86 )
Other operating expenses
    80,238,330       77,503,733       2,734,597       3.53  
Interest expense
    88,250             88,250        
Taxes, licenses & fees
    19,478,307       18,655,793       822,514       4.41  
Incr deferred acq expense
    (3,681,293 )     (11,718,254 )     8,036,961       (68.58 )
Total expenses
  $ 740,648,583     $ 703,190,986     $ 37,457,597       5.33  
Income before income taxes
  $ (32,421,433 )   $ 209,424,262     $ (241,845,695 )     (115.48 )
 
                               
Provision for income taxes:
                               
Current operating income
  $ 69,893,041     $ 50,616,959     $ 19,276,082       38.08  
Current realized investments gains and losses
    (49,815,437 )     10,633,068       (60,448,505 )     (568.50 )
Deferred
    (48,124,851 )     (5,755,376 )     (42,369,475 )     736.17  
Total income taxes
  $ (28,047,247 )   $ 55,494,651     $ (83,541,898 )     (150.54 )
 
                               
Net income (loss)
  $ (4,374,186 )   $ 153,929,611     $ (158,303,797 )     (102.84 )
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

11


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group
Statutory Statements of Income
                         
    For the Three Months Ended March 31,
    2008   2007   % Change
 
Underwriting income
                       
Net premiums written
  $ 774,719,939     $ 845,799,750       (8.40 )
Unearned premiums increase
    23,608,231       61,290,080       (61.48 )
Earned premiums
    751,111,708       784,509,670       (4.26 )
 
                       
Losses incurred
  $ 417,447,483     $ 370,753,035       12.59  
Allocated loss expenses incurred
    37,182,273       39,076,308       (4.85 )
Unallocated loss expenses incurred
    46,020,141       47,706,874       (3.54 )
Other underwriting expenses incurred
    231,847,644       244,742,340       (5.27 )
Workers compensation dividend incurred
    4,983,552       3,649,164       36.57  
 
                       
Total underwriting deductions
  $ 737,481,093     $ 705,927,720       4.47  
 
Net underwriting gain (loss)
  $ 13,630,614     $ 78,581,950       (82.65 )
 
                       
Investment income
                       
Gross investment income earned
  $ 96,728,928     $ 97,847,031       (1.14 )
Net investment income earned
    95,443,720       96,629,259       (1.23 )
Net realized capital gains
    (89,765,156 )     19,559,182       (558.94 )
Net investment gains (excl. subs)
  $ 5,678,564     $ 116,188,441       (95.11 )
Dividend from subsidiary
                 
Net investment gains
  $ 5,678,564     $ 116,188,441       (95.11 )
 
                       
Other income
  $ 384,182     $ 1,516,535       (74.67 )
 
                       
Net income before federal income taxes
  $ 19,693,360     $ 196,286,926       (89.97 )
Federal and foreign income taxes incurred
  $ 68,331,959     $ 49,751,322       37.35  
 
Net income (loss) (statutory)
  $ (48,638,599 )   $ 146,535,605       (133.19 )
 
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

12


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group — Consolidated
Statutory Quarterly Analysis
(Based on reported data — see Page 20 for adjusted data)
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08   12/31/07   9/30/07   6/30/07   3/31/07     6/30/08   6/30/07     9/30/08   9/30/07     12/31/08   12/31/07
                   
Net premiums written
                          $ 775     $ 724     $ 736     $ 810     $ 846               $ 1,656               $ 2,393               $ 3,117  
Net premiums earned
                          $ 751     $ 777     $ 777     $ 786     $ 785               $ 1,571               $ 2,348               $ 3,125  
 
                                                                                                                     
Losses paid
                          $ 383     $ 375     $ 363     $ 380     $ 364               $ 744               $ 1,107               $ 1,481  
Loss reserve change
                            35       (83 )     69       (16 )     6                 (9 )               60                 (24 )
Total losses incurred
                          $ 418     $ 292     $ 432     $ 364     $ 370               $ 735               $ 1,167               $ 1,457  
Allocated loss expense paid
                            25       37       29       33       32                 65                 94                 131  
Allocated loss expense reserve change
                            12       26       15       16       8                 24                 39                 65  
Total allocated loss expense incurred
                          $ 37     $ 63     $ 44     $ 49     $ 39               $ 89               $ 133               $ 196  
Unallocated loss expense paid
                            43       46       44       41       46                 87                 132                 178  
Unallocated loss expense reserve change
                            4       (6 )     4       1       2                 3                 6                 2  
Total unallocated loss expense incurred
                          $ 47     $ 40     $ 48     $ 42     $ 48               $ 90               $ 138               $ 180  
Underwriting expenses incurred
                            237       267       230       242       249                 489                 719                 988  
                   
Underwriting profit (loss)
                          $ 12     $ 115     $ 23     $ 89     $ 79               $ 168               $ 191               $ 304  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Ratio Data
                                                                                                                     
Loss ratio
                            55.5 %     37.5 %     55.6 %     46.3 %     47.2 %               46.8 %               49.7 %               46.7 %
Allocated loss expense ratio
                            5.0       8.1       5.7       6.3       5.0                 5.7                 5.7                 6.3  
Unallocated loss expense ratio
                            6.1       5.3       6.1       5.3       6.1                 5.7                 5.8                 5.7  
Net underwriting expense ratio
                            30.6       37.0       31.3       29.8       29.4                 29.5                 30.1                 31.7  
                   
Statutory combined ratio
                            97.2 %     87.9 %     98.7 %     87.7 %     87.7 %               87.7 %               91.3 %               90.4 %
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophes
                            91.5 %     88.1 %     97.0 %     86.3 %     87.3 %               86.8 %               90.1 %               89.5 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Loss Detail
                                                                                                                     
New losses $250,000-$500,000
                          $ 29     $ 29     $ 24     $ 22     $ 23               $ 45               $ 69               $ 98  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
                            12       16       14       15       15                 30                 44                 60  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
                            9       13       9       9       10                 19                 28                 41  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
                            22       24       26       26       28                 54                 80                 104  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
                            22       36       50       17       22                 39                 89                 125  
New losses greater than $4,000,000
                                        5                                             5                 5  
Case reserve development above $250,000
                            48       68       50       48       53                 101                 151                 219  
                   
Large losses subtotal
                          $ 142     $ 186     $ 178     $ 137     $ 151               $ 288               $ 466               $ 652  
IBNR incurred
                            6       (43 )           7       7                 15                 15                 (25 )
Catastrophe losses incurred
                            43       (2 )     13       11       3                 15                 28                 26  
Remaining incurred
                            227       151       241       209       210                 417                 658                 804  
                   
Total losses incurred
                          $ 418     $ 292     $ 432     $ 364     $ 371               $ 735               $ 1,167               $ 1,457  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Loss Ratio
                                                                                                                     
New losses $250,000-$500,000
                            3.9 %     3.7 %     3.1 %     2.8 %     2.9 %               2.9 %               2.9 %               3.1 %
New losses $500,000-$750,000
                            1.6       2.1       1.8       1.9       1.9                 1.9                 1.9                 1.9  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
                            1.2       1.7       1.2       1.1       1.3                 1.2                 1.2                 1.3  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
                            2.9       3.1       3.3       3.3       3.6                 3.4                 3.4                 3.3  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
                            2.9       4.6       6.4       2.2       2.8                 2.5                 3.8                 4.0  
New losses greater than $4,000,000
                                        0.6                                             0.2                 0.2  
Case reserve development above $250,000
                            6.4       8.8       6.4       6.1       6.8                 6.4                 6.4                 7.0  
                   
Large losses subtotal
                            18.9 %     23.9 %     22.9 %     17.4 %     19.2 %               18.3 %               19.8 %               20.9 %
IBNR incurred
                            0.8       (5.5 )           0.9       1.0                 0.9                 0.6                 (0.9 )
Total catastrophe losses incurred
                            5.7       (0.2 )     1.7       1.4       0.4                 0.9                 1.2                 0.8  
Remaining incurred
                            30.1       19.3       31.0       26.6       26.6                 26.7                 28.1                 25.9  
                   
Total loss ratio
                            55.5 %     37.5 %     55.6 %     46.3 %     47.2 %               46.8 %               49.7 %               46.7 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Loss Claim Count
                                                                                                                     
New losses $250,000-$500,000
                            87       88       75       67       72                 139                 214                 302  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
                            21       27       25       26       24                 50                 75                 102  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
                            10       16       11       11       12                 23                 34                 50  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
                            19       18       21       21       21                 42                 63                 81  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
                            7       12       16       5       7                 12                 28                 40  
New losses greater than $4,000,000
                                        1                                             1                 1  
Case reserve development above $250,000
                            81       112       93       82       93                 175                 268                 380  
                   
Large losses total
                            225       273       242       212       229                 441                 683                 956  
                   
 
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.
 
*   NM — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

13


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group — Commercial Lines
Statutory Quarterly Analysis
(Based on reported data — see Page 21 for adjusted data)
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08   12/31/07   9/30/07   6/30/07   3/31/07     6/30/08   6/30/07     9/30/08   9/30/07     12/31/08   12/31/07
                   
Net premiums written
                          $ 625     $ 562     $ 544     $ 613     $ 693               $ 1,306               $ 1,851               $ 2,413  
Net premiums earned
                          $ 574     $ 601     $ 600     $ 606     $ 604               $ 1,210               $ 1,810               $ 2,411  
 
Losses paid
                          $ 266     $ 272     $ 253     $ 270     $ 259               $ 530               $ 783               $ 1,055  
Loss reserve change
                            32       (53 )     66       (12 )     23                 11                 77                 23  
Total losses incurred
                          $ 298     $ 219     $ 319     $ 258     $ 282               $ 541               $ 860               $ 1,078  
Allocated loss expense paid
                            22       33       26       30       28                 58                 84                 117  
Allocated loss expense reserve change
                            12       27       16       16       8                 24                 40                 67  
Total allocated loss expense incurred
                          $ 34     $ 60     $ 42     $ 46     $ 36               $ 82               $ 124               $ 184  
Unallocated loss expense paid
                            30       34       31       30       33                 63                 94                 128  
Unallocated loss expense reserve change
                            3       (3 )     4       1       3                 4                 8                 5  
Total unallocated loss expense incurred
                          $ 33     $ 31     $ 35     $ 31     $ 36               $ 67               $ 102               $ 133  
Underwriting expenses incurred
                            186       215       170       179       193                 371                 541                 757  
                   
Underwriting profit (loss)
                          $ 23     $ 76     $ 34     $ 92     $ 57               $ 149               $ 183               $ 259  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
                   
Ratio Data
                                                                                                                     
Loss ratio
                            52.0 %     36.4 %     53.2 %     42.6 %     46.8 %               44.7 %               47.5 %               44.8 %
Allocated loss expense ratio
                            5.9       9.9       7.0       7.6       6.0                 6.8                 6.8                 7.6  
Unallocated loss expense ratio
                            5.7       5.2       5.8       5.1       5.9                 5.5                 5.6                 5.5  
Net underwriting expense ratio
                            29.7       38.2       31.2       29.1       27.8                 28.4                 29.3                 31.4  
                   
Statutory combined ratio
                            93.3 %     89.7 %     97.2 %     84.4 %     86.5 %               85.4 %               89.2 %               89.3 %
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophes
                            89.4 %     89.7 %     97.1 %     83.6 %     84.7 %               84.1 %               88.3 %               88.6 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
                   
Loss Detail
                                                                                                                     
New losses $250,000-$500,000
                          $ 23     $ 21     $ 18     $ 16     $ 18               $ 34               $ 52               $ 73  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
                            9       14       11       12       12                 24                 35                 49  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
                            8       11       8       6       9                 15                 23                 34  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
                            18       19       25       23       23                 46                 71                 90  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
                            22       34       43       13       22                 35                 78                 112  
New losses greater than $4,000,000
                                        5                                             5                 5  
Case reserve development above $250,000
                            44       60       45       46       49                 95                 140                 200  
                   
Large losses subtotal
                          $ 124     $ 159     $ 155     $ 116     $ 133               $ 249               $ 404               $ 563  
IBNR incurred
                            6       (29 )           6       7                 14                 14                 (12 )
Catastrophe losses incurred
                            22             1       5       10                 16                 17                 16  
Remaining incurred
                            146       89       163       131       132                 262                 425                 511  
                   
Total losses incurred
                          $ 298     $ 219     $ 319     $ 258     $ 282               $ 541               $ 860               $ 1,078  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
                   
Loss Ratio
                                                                                                                     
New losses $250,000-$500,000
                            4.0 %     3.4 %     3.0 %     2.6 %     2.8 %               2.7 %               2.9 %               2.9 %
New losses $500,000-$750,000
                            1.5       2.2       1.8       2.0       2.0                 2.0                 1.9                 2.0  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
                            1.3       1.8       1.3       1.0       1.5                 1.2                 1.3                 1.4  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
                            3.2       3.2       4.2       3.8       3.8                 3.8                 3.9                 3.7  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
                            3.9       5.7       7.2       2.1       3.6                 2.9                 4.3                 4.5  
New losses greater than $4,000,000
                                        0.8                                             0.3                 0.2  
Case reserve development above $250,000
                            7.8       10.1       7.5       7.6       8.1                 7.8                 7.6                 8.3  
                   
Large losses subtotal
                            21.7 %     26.4 %     25.8 %     19.1 %     21.8 %               20.4 %               22.2 %               23.2 %
IBNR incurred
                            1.0       (4.8 )           1.0       1.2                 1.1                 0.8                 (0.5 )
Total catastrophe losses incurred
                            3.9             0.2       0.8       1.8                 1.3                 0.9                 0.7  
Remaining incurred
                            25.4       14.8       27.2       21.7       22.0                 21.9                 23.6                 21.4  
                   
Total loss ratio
                            52.0 %     36.4 %     53.2 %     42.6 %     46.8 %               44.7 %               47.5 %               44.8 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
                   
Loss Claim Count
                                                                                                                     
New losses $250,000-$500,000
                            68       64       57       49       57                 106                 163                 227  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
                            16       23       20       21       20                 41                 61                 84  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
                            9       13       9       7       11                 18                 27                 40  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
                            16       14       20       19       17                 36                 56                 70  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
                            7       11       14       4       7                 11                 25                 36  
New losses greater than $4,000,000
                                        1                                             1                 1  
Case reserve development above $250,000
                            74       96       80       75       85                 160                 240                 336  
                   
Large losses total
                            190       221       201       175       197                 372                 573                 794  
                   
 
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.
 
*   NM — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

14


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group — Personal Lines
Statutory Quarterly Analysis
(Based on reported data — see Page 22 for adjusted data)
                                                                                                                       
                                    Three months ended                     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08   12/31/07   9/30/07   6/30/07   3/31/07     6/30/08   6/30/07     9/30/08   9/30/07     12/31/08   1/3/00
                   
Net premiums written
                          $ 150     $ 162     $ 192     $ 197     $ 153               $ 350               $ 542               $ 704  
Net premiums earned
                          $ 177     $ 176     $ 177     $ 180     $ 181               $ 361               $ 538               $ 714  
 
                                                                                                                     
Losses paid
                          $ 116     $ 103     $ 110     $ 110     $ 105               $ 214               $ 324               $ 426  
Loss reserve change
                            3       (30 )     3       (4 )     (17 )               (20 )               (17 )               (47 )
Total losses incurred
                          $ 119     $ 73     $ 113     $ 106     $ 88               $ 194               $ 307               $ 379  
Allocated loss expense paid
                            3       4       3       3       4                 7                 10                 14  
Allocated loss expense reserve change
                                  (1 )     (1 )                                           (1 )               (2 )
Total allocated loss expense incurred
                          $ 3     $ 3     $ 2     $ 3     $ 4               $ 7               $ 9               $ 12  
Unallocated loss expense paid
                            13       12       13       11       13                 24                 38                 50  
Unallocated loss expense reserve change
                            1       (3 )                 (1 )               (1 )               (2 )               (3 )
Total unallocated loss expense incurred
                          $ 14     $ 9     $ 13     $ 11     $ 12               $ 23               $ 36               $ 47  
Underwriting expenses incurred
                            51       52       60       63       56                 118                 178                 231  
                   
Underwriting profit (loss)
                          $ (10 )   $ 39     $ (11 )   $ (3 )   $ 22               $ 19               $ 8               $ 45  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Ratio Data
                                                                                                                     
Loss ratio
                            67.4 %     41.3 %     63.8 %     58.6 %     48.9 %               53.8 %               57.1 %               53.2 %
Allocated loss expense ratio
                            1.9       1.8       1.4       1.9       1.8                 1.9                 1.7                 1.7  
Unallocated loss expense ratio
                            7.4       5.5       7.3       6.2       6.6                 6.4                 6.7                 6.4  
Net underwriting expense ratio
                            34.1       32.8       31.1       31.9       36.2                 33.7                 32.8                 32.8  
                   
Statutory combined ratio
                            110.8 %     81.4 %     103.6 %     98.6 %     93.5 %               95.8 %               98.3 %               94.1 %
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophes
                            99.2 %     82.4 %     96.6 %     95.1 %     97.6 %               96.1 %               96.2 %               92.8 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Loss Detail
                                                                                                                     
New losses $250,000-$500,000
                          $ 6     $ 8     $ 6     $ 6     $ 5               $ 11               $ 17               $ 25  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
                            3       2       3       3       3                 6                 9                 11  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
                            1       2       1       3       1                 4                 5                 7  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
                            4       5       1       3       5                 8                 9                 14  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
                                  2       7       4                       4                 11                 13  
New losses greater than $4,000,000
                                                                                                     
Case reserve development above $250,000
                            4       8       5       2       4                 6                 11                 19  
                   
Large losses subtotal
                          $ 18     $ 27     $ 23     $ 21     $ 18               $ 39               $ 62               $ 89  
IBNR incurred
                                  (14 )           1                       1                 1                 (13 )
Catastrophe losses incurred
                            21       (2 )     12       6       (7 )               (1 )               11                 10  
Remaining incurred
                            80       62       78       78       77                 155                 233                 293  
                   
Total losses incurred
                          $ 119     $ 73     $ 113     $ 106     $ 88               $ 194               $ 307               $ 379  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Loss Ratio
                                                                                                                     
New losses $250,000-$500,000
                            3.6 %     4.5 %     3.4 %     3.3 %     3.0 %               3.1 %               3.3 %               3.6 %
New losses $500,000-$750,000
                            1.5       1.1       1.7       1.7       1.9                 1.8                 1.7                 1.5  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
                            0.4       1.1       0.6       1.7       0.7                 1.1                 0.9                 1.0  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
                            2.1       2.8       0.6       1.7       3.0                 2.3                 1.7                 2.0  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
                                  1.0       4.1       2.2                       1.1                 2.1                 1.8  
New losses greater than $4,000,000
                                                                                                     
Case reserve development above $250,000
                            2.5       4.4       2.9       1.2       2.2                 1.8                 2.1                 2.7  
                   
Large losses subtotal
                            10.0 %     15.1 %     13.2 %     11.8 %     10.6 %               11.2 %               11.8 %               12.6 %
IBNR incurred
                            0.2       (7.8 )           0.4                       0.2                 0.1                 (1.8 )
Total catastrophe losses incurred
                            11.6       (1.0 )     7.0       3.5       (4.1 )               (0.3 )               2.1                 1.3  
Remaining incurred
                            45.6       35.0       43.6       42.9       42.4                 42.7                 43.1                 41.1  
                   
Total loss ratio
                            67.4 %     41.3 %     63.8 %     58.6 %     48.9 %               53.8 %               57.1 %               53.2 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Loss Claim Count
                                                                                                                     
New losses $250,000-$500,000
                            19       24       18       18       15                 33                 51                 75  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
                            5       4       5       5       4                 9                 14                 18  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
                            1       3       2       4       1                 5                 7                 10  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
                            3       4       1       2       4                 6                 7                 11  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
                                  1       2       1                       1                 3                 4  
New losses greater than $4,000,000
                                                                                                     
Case reserve development above $250,000
                            7       16       13       7       8                 15                 28                 44  
                   
Large losses total
                            35       52       41       37       32                 69                 110                 162  
                   
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.
 
*   NM — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

15


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group.
Direct Written Premiums by Risk State by Line of Business for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2008
(Dollars in millions)
                                                                                                                           
                                                                                    3/31/2008   3/31/2007     Commercial   Personal   Total
    Comm   Comm   Comm   Workers’   Specialty   Surety &   Mach. &   Pers   Home   Other   Agency   Agency     Change   Change   Change
Risk State   Casualty   Prop   Auto   Comp   Packages   Exec Risk   Equip   Auto   Owner   Personal   Direct   Direct     %   %   %
       
AL
  $ 4.9     $ 3.9     $ 2.0     $ 0.3     $ 2.0     $ 0.6     $ 0.1     $ 3.5     $ 5.5     $ 1.1     $ 24.0     $ 24.5         (9.4 )     9.8       (2.2 )
AZ
    4.1       1.9       2.9       0.2       0.2       0.2       0.3       0.0       0.0       0.0       9.8       8.7         12.8       (9.4 )     12.6  
AR
    2.6       2.5       1.7       1.4       0.9       0.3       0.1       0.7       0.7       0.2       11.0       11.3         (2.4 )     0.1       (2.1 )
DE
    0.2       0.2       0.2       0.5       0.1       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       1.1       1.4         (14.0 )           (14.0 )
FL
    8.3       6.8       3.6       0.5       0.8       0.7       0.2       3.0       4.8       0.9       29.8       35.6         (12.8 )     (23.6 )     (16.2 )
GA
    7.8       5.1       4.7       4.4       1.8       1.6       0.2       6.8       6.2       1.8       40.4       40.5         (2.1 )     3.0       (0.0 )
ID
    2.7       1.1       1.3       0.1       0.3       0.4       0.1       0.0       0.0       0.0       5.9       5.6         7.5             7.5  
IL
    18.2       12.2       9.4       17.2       3.4       2.1       0.6       5.0       3.9       1.5       73.5       80.5         (9.7 )     (0.7 )     (8.3 )
IN
    14.0       10.1       7.3       9.2       2.0       2.0       0.6       5.7       5.4       1.5       57.9       63.3         (11.4 )     1.9       (8.5 )
IA
    5.0       3.2       2.4       7.7       1.2       0.8       0.2       0.7       0.9       0.4       22.4       24.3         (7.4 )     (10.4 )     (7.7 )
KS
    2.0       2.1       1.3       2.9       0.8       0.3       0.1       0.9       1.2       0.3       11.9       12.8         (7.5 )     (4.1 )     (6.9 )
KY
    5.7       5.0       4.0       1.0       1.3       0.8       0.2       4.2       3.3       0.9       26.4       26.5         (2.3 )     4.1       (0.4 )
MD
    3.7       1.3       2.6       2.6       0.3       0.4       0.1       0.0       0.4       0.1       11.5       13.0         (12.1 )     23.0       (11.1 )
MI
    8.2       5.0       4.0       5.4       3.0       1.4       0.4       2.4       2.9       0.7       33.3       39.9         (17.4 )     (11.4 )     (16.4 )
MN
    6.6       4.1       2.6       2.3       0.9       0.7       0.3       1.3       1.2       0.9       20.9       25.3         (18.9 )     (7.7 )     (17.2 )
MO
    7.7       4.6       3.0       4.8       1.4       0.5       0.2       0.5       0.9       0.2       23.8       26.1         (8.6 )     (13.4 )     (9.0 )
MT
    5.0       1.4       1.8       0.0       0.2       0.2       0.1       0.0       0.0       0.0       8.8       8.4         5.7       20.9       5.7  
NE
    1.7       1.3       1.0       2.2       0.4       0.4       0.1       0.2       0.2       0.1       7.6       8.0         (3.5 )     (16.4 )     (4.5 )
NH
    0.7       0.5       0.3       0.8       0.2       0.2       0.0       0.2       0.1       0.1       3.1       3.6         (14.0 )     (8.5 )     (13.4 )
NY
    6.3       1.5       2.0       0.5       0.4       0.4       0.1       0.0       0.0       0.0       11.3       13.8         (17.8 )     4.9       (17.7 )
NC
    10.2       6.7       5.4       8.0       3.0       1.5       0.3       0.2       0.4       0.7       36.5       40.2         (9.3 )     1.1       (9.0 )
ND
    1.6       1.0       0.8       0.0       0.2       0.3       0.1       0.1       0.1       0.0       4.1       3.9         9.5       (20.8 )     7.2  
OH
    43.3       23.9       17.3       (0.4 )     4.8       6.3       1.2       26.8       18.8       6.6       148.8       158.0         (9.7 )     (1.9 )     (5.6 )
PA
    12.4       7.6       8.2       17.3       2.7       1.3       0.5       1.6       1.2       0.8       53.7       55.6         (3.4 )     (3.3 )     (3.4 )
SC
    3.3       1.8       1.7       1.8       0.7       0.7       0.1       0.0       0.0       0.0       10.1       11.1         (9.2 )     (13.5 )     (9.2 )
SD
    1.2       0.8       0.6       1.4       0.1       0.1       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       4.3       4.7         (8.1 )     (20.0 )     (8.1 )
TN
    6.3       4.7       3.3       4.2       2.2       1.1       0.3       1.9       2.0       0.7       26.6       30.3         (14.3 )     1.7       (11.9 )
UT
    3.0       1.1       1.6       0.0       0.1       0.3       0.1       0.0       0.0       0.0       6.4       6.1         6.8             6.9  
VT
    1.2       0.9       0.7       1.6       0.2       0.1       0.1       0.2       0.2       0.1       5.3       5.9         (9.9 )     (8.5 )     (9.8 )
VA
    9.4       6.7       6.3       7.0       1.3       1.1       0.3       1.9       1.6       0.6       36.2       41.4         (13.3 )     (6.5 )     (12.6 )
WV
    2.1       1.3       1.5       0.0       0.7       0.1       0.1       0.0       0.1       0.1       6.0       7.5         (19.6 )     (25.3 )     (19.8 )
WI
    8.2       4.9       3.1       8.9       1.2       0.9       0.4       1.8       1.5       0.7       31.6       33.8         (6.5 )     (5.1 )     (6.3 )
All Other
    1.7       1.5       1.1       1.7       0.0       0.5       0.1       0.0       0.1       0.0       6.6       6.8         (3.2 )     7.6       (3.0 )
       
Total
  $ 219.1     $ 137.0     $ 109.7     $ 115.8     $ 39.1     $ 28.2     $ 7.5     $ 69.7     $ 63.5     $ 21.0     $ 810.7     $ 878.1         (8.7 )     (2.7 )     (7.6 )
Other Direct
    0.3       0.6       0.2       1.8       0.1       0.0       0.0       0.1       0.9       0.4       4.4       3.5         38.6       10.1       28.2  
       
Total Direct
  $ 219.4     $ 137.6     $ 109.9     $ 117.6     $ 39.2     $ 28.2     $ 7.5     $ 69.8     $ 64.4     $ 21.4     $ 815.1     $ 881.6         (8.6 )     (2.6 )     (7.5 )
       
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

16


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — By Commercial Lines of Business
                                                                                                                       
(Dollars in millions)                           Three months ended                             Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
    12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08   12/31/07   9/30/07   6/30/07   3/31/07     6/30/08   6/30/07     9/30/08   9/30/07     12/31/08   12/31/07
                   
Commercial casualty:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
                          $ 211     $ 189     $ 179     $ 218     $ 245               $ 462               $ 641               $ 830  
Earned premiums
                            190       204       205       209       209                 418                 623                 827  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
                            58.3 %     32.0 %     63.7 %     54.6 %     53.5 %               54.2 %               57.4 %               51.1 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                                                                                                     
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
                            58.3 %     32.0 %     63.7 %     54.6 %     53.5 %               54.2 %               57.4 %               51.1 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Commercial property:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
                          $ 124     $ 116     $ 120     $ 125     $ 138               $ 263               $ 383               $ 499  
Earned premiums
                            122       124       125       125       123                 248                 373                 497  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
                            75.5 %     32.9 %     61.5 %     45.8 %     53.6 %               49.7 %               53.7 %               48.5 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                            16.5             (1.4 )     3.2       6.9                 5.0                 2.9                 2.2  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
                            59.0 %     32.9 %     62.9 %     42.6 %     46.7 %               44.7 %               50.8 %               46.3 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Commercial auto:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
                          $ 107     $ 100     $ 92     $ 112     $ 124               $ 236               $ 329               $ 429  
Earned premiums
                            101       110       108       110       113                 223                 331                 440  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
                            63.4 %     60.3 %     66.9 %     62.9 %     64.6 %               63.4 %               64.5 %               63.5 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                            (0.4 )     (0.2 )     0.4             (0.2 )                               0.1                  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
                            63.8 %     60.5 %     66.5 %     62.9 %     64.8 %               63.4 %               64.4 %               63.5 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Workers’ compensation:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
                          $ 114     $ 88     $ 84     $ 92     $ 113               $ 206               $ 289               $ 378  
Earned premiums
                            94       93       94       95       92                 187                 280                 373  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
                            64.8 %     113.6 %     82.0 %     66.8 %     76.5 %               71.5 %               75.0 %               84.6 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                                                                                                     
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
                            64.8 %     113.6 %     82.0 %     66.8 %     76.5 %               71.5 %               75.0 %               84.6 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Specialty package:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
                          $ 37     $ 36     $ 34     $ 36     $ 41               $ 77               $ 111               $ 146  
Earned premiums
                            35       36       36       37       36                 73                 109                 146  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
                            63.4 %     41.9 %     76.7 %     49.9 %     69.6 %               59.6 %               65.3 %               59.4 %
Less Catastrophe loss ratio
                            8.1       0.6       6.2       2.6       7.0                 4.7                 5.2                 4.1  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
                            55.3 %     41.3 %     70.5 %     47.3 %     62.6 %               54.9 %               60.1 %               55.3 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Surety and executive risk:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
                          $ 25     $ 26     $ 28     $ 23     $ 25               $ 48               $ 76               $ 102  
Earned premiums
                            25       27       25       24       24                 47                 73                 100  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
                            45.9 %     55.7 %     36.5 %     49.3 %     24.0 %               36.7 %               36.7 %               41.8 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                                                                                                     
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
                            45.9 %     55.7 %     36.5 %     49.3 %     24.0 %               36.7 %               36.7 %               41.8 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Machinery and equipment:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
                          $ 7     $ 7     $ 7     $ 7     $ 7               $ 14               $ 22               $ 29  
Earned premiums
                            7       7       7       7       7                 14                 21                 28  
Loss and loss expense ratio
                            53.3 %     27.8 %     34.7 %     20.4 %     28.2 %               24.3 %               27.8 %               27.8 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                                  (0.8 )     1.3             (1.6 )               (0.8 )               (0.1 )               (0.3 )
                   
Loss and loss expense excluding catastrophe loss ratio
                            53.3 %     28.6 %     33.4 %     20.4 %     29.8 %               25.1 %               27.9 %               28.1 %
                   
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

17


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — By Personal Lines of Business
                                                                                                                       
(Dollars in millions)                           Three months ended                             Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
    12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08   12/31/07   9/30/07   6/30/07   3/31/07     6/30/08   6/30/07     9/30/08   9/30/07     12/31/08   12/31/07
                   
Personal auto:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
                          $ 69     $ 75     $ 92     $ 93     $ 72               $ 164               $ 256               $ 332  
Earned premiums
                            83       83       85       86       88                 174                 259                 342  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
                            67.6 %     65.3 %     67.7 %     67.6 %     66.5 %               67.1 %               67.3 %               66.8 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                            1.7       (0.3 )     0.7       (0.3 )     (2.3 )               (1.3 )               (0.6 )               (0.6 )
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
                            65.9 %     65.6 %     67.0 %     67.9 %     68.8 %               68.4 %               67.9 %               67.4 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Homeowner:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
                          $ 60     $ 66     $ 77     $ 80     $ 61               $ 141               $ 218               $ 284  
Earned premiums
                            72       71       70       72       71                 143                 214                 285  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
                            91.4 %     36.6 %     82.7 %     66.9 %     50.0 %               58.5 %               66.5 %               59.0 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                            25.2       (2.3 )     15.6       8.3       (7.5 )               0.4                 5.4                 3.5  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
                            66.2 %     38.9 %     67.1 %     58.6 %     57.5 %               58.1 %               61.1 %               55.5 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Other personal:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
                          $ 21     $ 21     $ 23     $ 24     $ 20               $ 44               $ 67               $ 88  
Earned premiums
                            22       22       22       22       22                 43                 65                 87  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
                            62.2 %     24.1 %     57.9 %     62.8 %     43.4 %               53.1 %               54.7 %               47.0 %
Less Catastrophe loss ratio
                            4.1       0.6       3.7       3.5       (0.1 )               1.3                 2.0                 1.7  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
                            58.1 %     23.5 %     54.2 %     59.3 %     43.5 %               51.8 %               52.7 %               45.3 %
                   
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

 18


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group
Quarterly Detailed Loss Analysis
                                                                                                                       
(Dollars in millions)                                   Three months ended                     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
    12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08   12/31/07   9/30/07   6/30/07   3/31/07     6/30/08   6/30/07     9/30/08   9/30/07     12/31/08   12/31/07
                   
All Lines
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses:
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                          $ 467     $ 515     $ 558     $ 484     $ 472               $ 956               $ 1,515               $ 2,029  
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                            (9 )     (118 )     (47 )     (40 )     (17 )               (58 )               (106 )               (223 )
Catastrophes — current AY
                            47       (1 )     15       15       16                 31                 48                 46  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
                            (4 )     (1 )     (2 )     (4 )     (13 )               (16 )               (19 )               (19 )
                   
Total
                          $ 501     $ 395     $ 524     $ 455     $ 458               $ 913               $ 1,438               $ 1,833  
                   
Ratio to Earned Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses :
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                            62.2 %     66.3 %     71.9 %     61.6 %     60.2 %               60.9 %               64.5 %               64.9 %
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                            (1.3 )     (15.2 )     (6.2 )     (5.1 )     (2.3 )               (3.7 )               (4.5 )               (7.1 )
Catastrophes — current AY
                            6.2       (0.1 )     2.0       1.9       2.1                 2.0                 2.0                 1.4  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
                            (0.5 )     (0.1 )     (0.3 )     (0.5 )     (1.7 )               (1.0 )               (0.8 )               (0.6 )
                   
Total
                            66.6 %     50.9 %     67.4 %     57.9 %     58.3 %               58.2 %               61.2 %               58.6 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Commercial Lines
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses:
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                          $ 354     $ 412     $ 433     $ 370     $ 356               $ 727               $ 1,159               $ 1,571  
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                            (11 )     (102 )     (38 )     (40 )     (13 )               (53 )               (91 )               (193 )
Catastrophes — current AY
                            25             5       8       12                 21                 27                 26  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
                            (3 )           (4 )     (3 )     (2 )               (5 )               (9 )               (9 )
                   
Total
                          $ 365     $ 310     $ 396     $ 335     $ 354               $ 690               $ 1,086               $ 1,395  
                   
Ratio to Earned Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses:
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                            61.6 %     68.5 %     72.2 %     61.0 %     59.0 %               60.0 %               64.0 %               65.2 %
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                            (1.9 )     (17.0 )     (6.4 )     (6.6 )     (2.1 )               (4.3 )               (5.0 )               (8.0 )
Catastrophes — current AY
                            4.5       0.0       0.9       1.4       2.2                 1.8                 1.6                 1.1  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
                            (0.6 )     (0.0 )     (0.8 )     (0.5 )     (0.4 )               (0.4 )               (0.5 )               (0.4 )
                   
Total
                            63.6 %     51.4 %     66.0 %     55.3 %     58.7 %               57.1 %               60.1 %               57.9 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Personal Lines
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses:
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                          $ 113     $ 103     $ 125     $ 114     $ 116               $ 229               $ 356               $ 458  
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                            2       (16 )     (9 )           (5 )               (5 )               (15 )               (30 )
Catastrophes — current AY
                            22       (1 )     10       7       4                 10                 21                 20  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
                            (1 )     (1 )     2       (1 )     (11 )               (11 )               (10 )               (10 )
                   
Total
                          $ 136     $ 85     $ 128     $ 120     $ 104               $ 223               $ 352               $ 438  
                   
Ratio to Earned Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses:
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                            64.1 %     58.5 %     70.8 %     63.3 %     64.3 %               63.8 %               66.1 %               64.2 %
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
                            1.0       (8.9 )     (5.3 )     (0.1 )     (2.9 )               (1.5 )               (2.8 )               (4.2 )
Catastrophes — current AY
                            11.9       (0.7 )     5.9       3.8       2.0                 2.9                 3.9                 2.7  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
                            (0.3 )     (0.3 )     1.1       (0.3 )     (6.1 )               (3.2 )               (1.8 )               (1.4 )
                   
Total
                            76.7 %     48.6 %     72.5 %     66.7 %     57.3 %               62.0 %               65.4 %               61.3 %
                   
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

19 


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Consolidated
                                                                                                                       
(Dollars in millions)                                   Three months ended                     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
    12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08   12/31/07   9/30/07   6/30/07   3/31/07     6/30/08   6/30/07     9/30/08   9/30/07     12/31/08   12/31/07
                   
Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Adjusted written premiums (statutory)
                          $ 772     $ 749     $ 779     $ 808     $ 811               $ 1,619               $ 2,398               $ 3,149  
Written premium adjustment - statutory only
                            3       (25 )     (43 )     2       35                 37                 (6 )               (32 )
                   
Reported written premiums (statutory)*
                          $ 775     $ 724     $ 736     $ 810     $ 846               $ 1,656               $ 2,392               $ 3,117  
Unearned premiums change
                            (24 )     53       41       (23 )     (61 )               (85 )               (44 )               8  
                   
Earned premiums
                          $ 751     $ 777     $ 777     $ 787     $ 785               $ 1,571               $ 2,348               $ 3,125  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Statutory combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
Statutory combined ratio
                            97.2 %     87.8 %     98.7 %     87.7 %     87.7 %               87.7 %               91.3 %               90.3 %
Less catastrophe losses
                            5.7       (0.3 )     1.7       1.4       0.4                 0.9                 1.2                 0.8  
                   
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
                            91.5 %     88.1 %     97.0 %     86.3 %     87.3 %               86.8 %               90.1 %               89.5 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Commission expense ratio
                            17.7 %     23.1 %     18.1 %     18.1 %     18.0 %               18.0 %               18.0 %               19.2 %
Other expense ratio
                            12.9       13.9       13.2       11.7       11.4                 11.6                 12.1                 12.5  
                   
Statutory expense ratio
                            30.6 %     37.0 %     31.3 %     29.8 %     29.4 %               29.6 %               30.1 %               31.7 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
GAAP combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
GAAP combined ratio
                            98.6 %     85.6 %     97.3 %     88.6 %     89.6 %               89.1 %               91.8 %               90.3 %
                   
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
 
*   nm — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

20 


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Commercial Lines
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08   12/31/07   9/30/07   6/30/07   3/31/07     6/30/08   6/30/07     9/30/08   9/30/07     12/31/08   12/31/07
                   
Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Adjusted written premiums (statutory)
                          $ 622     $ 586     $ 587     $ 611     $ 658               $ 1,269               $ 1,857               $ 2,444  
Written premium adjustment — statutory only
                            3       (24 )     (43 )     2       35                 37                 (6 )               (31 )
                   
Reported written premiums (statutory)*
                          $ 625     $ 562     $ 544     $ 613     $ 693               $ 1,306               $ 1,851               $ 2,413  
Unearned premiums change
                            (51 )     39       56       (6 )     (89 )               (96 )               (41 )               (2 )
                   
Earned premiums
                          $ 574     $ 601     $ 600     $ 607     $ 604               $ 1,210               $ 1,810               $ 2,411  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Statutory combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
Statutory combined ratio
                            93.3 %     89.7 %     97.3 %     84.4 %     86.5 %               85.4 %               89.2 %               89.2 %
Less catastrophe losses
                            3.9             0.2       0.8       1.8                 1.3                 0.9                 0.6  
                   
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
                            89.4 %     89.7 %     97.1 %     83.6 %     84.7 %               84.1 %               88.3 %               88.6 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
GAAP combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
GAAP combined ratio
                            95.0 %     87.3 %     95.4 %     85.2 %     88.9 %               87.0 %               89.8 %               89.2 %
                   
 
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
 
*   nm — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement
p

21


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Personal Lines
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08   12/31/07   9/30/07   6/30/07   3/31/07     6/30/08   6/30/07     9/30/08   9/30/07     12/31/08   12/31/07
                   
Adjusted written premiums (statutory)
                          $ 150     $ 163     $ 192     $ 197     $ 153               $ 350               $ 541               $ 705  
Written premium adjustment — statutory only
                                  (1 )                                                                 (1 )
                   
Reported written premiums (statutory)*
                          $ 150     $ 162     $ 192     $ 197     $ 153               $ 350               $ 541               $ 704  
Unearned premiums change
                            27       14       (15 )     (17 )     28                 11                 (3 )               10  
                   
Earned premiums
                          $ 177     $ 176     $ 177     $ 180     $ 181               $ 361               $ 538               $ 714  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Statutory combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
Statutory combined ratio
                            110.8 %     %     103.6 %     98.6 %     93.5 %               95.8 %               98.3 %               94.1 %
Less catastrophe losses
                            11.6       (1.0 )     7.0       3.5       (4.1 )               (0.3 )               2.1                 1.3  
                   
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
                            99.2 %     1.0 %     96.6 %     95.1 %     97.6 %               96.1 %               96.2 %               92.8 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
GAAP combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
GAAP combined ratio
                            110.1 %     79.7 %     103.8 %     99.9 %     92.0 %               96.0 %               98.6 %               93.9 %
                   
 
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
 
*   nm — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

22


 

The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company
GAAP Statements of Income
                                 
    For the Three Months Ended March 31,
    2008   2007   Change   % Change
 
Revenues:
                               
Premiums earned:
                               
Life
  $ 40,068,179     $ 38,946,474     $ 1,121,705       2.88  
Accident health
    1,868,167       1,758,851       109,316       6.22  
Premiums ceded
    (12,489,397 )     (10,286,342 )     (2,203,055 )     21.42  
Total premiums earned
    29,446,949       30,418,983       (972,034 )     (3.20 )
Investment income
    29,080,394       28,312,584       767,810       2.71  
Realized investment gains and losses
    (9,802,238 )     8,144,413       (17,946,651 )     (220.36 )
Other income
    742,390       1,365,571       (623,181 )     (45.64 )
Total revenues
  $ 49,467,495     $ 68,241,551     $ (18,774,056 )     (27.51 )
 
                               
Benefits & expenses:
                               
Losses & policy benefits
  $ 39,885,436     $ 36,890,212     $ 2,995,224       8.12  
Reinsurance recoveries
    (4,358,148 )     (9,652,925 )     5,294,777       (54.85 )
Commissions
    6,282,112       8,939,275       (2,657,163 )     (29.72 )
Other operating expenses
    6,288,651       7,485,616       (1,196,965 )     (15.99 )
Interest expense
                       
Taxes, licenses & fees
    1,012,324       946,862       65,462       6.91  
Incr deferred acq expense
    (2,036,729 )     (3,936,437 )     1,899,708       (48.26 )
Total expenses
  $ 47,073,646     $ 40,672,603     $ 6,401,043       15.74  
 
                               
Income before income taxes
  $ 2,393,849     $ 27,568,948     $ (25,175,099 )     (91.32 )
Provision for income taxes:
                               
Current
  $ 7,672,506     $ 2,700,754     $ 4,971,752       184.09  
Current capital gains/losses
    (3,410,783 )     2,870,544       (6,281,327 )     (218.82 )
Deferred
    (3,583,310 )     4,059,429       (7,642,739 )     (188.27 )
Total income taxes
  $ 678,413     $ 9,630,727     $ (8,952,314 )     (92.96 )
 
                               
Net income
  $ 1,715,436     $ 17,938,221     $ (16,222,785 )     (90.44 )
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

23


 

The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company
Statutory Statements of Income
                         
    For the Three Months Ended March 31,
    2008   2007   % Change
 
Net premiums written
  $ 41,996,272     $ 40,441,018       3.85  
Net investment income
    29,080,732       28,317,576       2.69  
Amortization of interest maintenance reserve
    (269,001 )     18,286       (1,571.08 )
Commissions and expense allowances on reinsurance ceded
    1,941,492       1,962,089       (1.05 )
Income from fees associated with Separate Accounts
    742,390       1,365,571       (45.64 )
Total revenues
  $ 73,491,885     $ 72,104,540       1.92  
 
                       
Death benefits and matured endowments
  $ 10,682,392     $ 7,025,780       52.05  
Annuity benefits
    7,389,683       8,446,244       (12.51 )
Disability benefits and benefits under accident and health contracts
    575,866       392,588       46.68  
Surrender benefits and group conversions
    5,986,229       4,872,348       22.86  
Interest and adjustments on deposit-type contract funds
    2,749,630       2,701,644       1.78  
Increase in aggregate reserves for life and accident and health contracts
    22,344,475       27,127,730       (17.63 )
Payments on supplementary contracts with life contingencies
    84,382       90,522       (6.78 )
Total benefit expenses
  $ 49,812,657     $ 50,656,856       (1.67 )
 
                       
Commissions
  $ 8,147,979     $ 8,834,275       (7.77 )
General insurance expenses and taxes
    9,509,358       9,826,285       (3.23 )
Increase in loading on deferred and uncollected premiums
    (250,714 )     (1,378,574 )     81.81  
Net transfers to or (from) Separate Accounts
                 
Other deductions
    63       64       (1.56 )
Total operating expenses
  $ 17,406,686     $ 17,282,050       0.72  
 
                       
Federal and Foreign Income Taxes Incurred
    7,659,148       2,611,204       193.32  
 
                       
Net gain from operations before realized capital gains or (losses)
  $ (1,386,606 )   $ 1,554,430       (189.20 )
 
                       
Net realized gains or (losses) net of capital gains tax
    (6,566,723 )     5,811,552       (212.99 )
 
                       
Net Income (loss) (Statutory)
  $ (7,953,329 )   $ 7,365,982       (207.97 )
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

24


 

The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company
Expenses as a Percentage of Premium
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/08   09/30/08   06/30/08   03/31/08   12/31/07   09/30/07   06/30/07   03/31/07     06/30/08   06/30/07     09/30/08   09/30/07     12/31/08   12/31/07
                   
Gross Written Premiums
                          $ 54     $ 55     $ 49     $ 54     $ 53               $ 107               $ 156               $ 211  
Bank Owned Life Insurance (BOLI) Adjustment
                                                                                                     
                   
Adjusted Gross Written Premiums
                          $ 54     $ 55     $ 49     $ 54     $ 53               $ 107               $ 156               $ 211  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Insurance Expense
                          $ 8     $ 8     $ 8     $ 9     $ 9               $ 18               $ 26               $ 34  
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Expense Ratio
                            15.0 %     14.5 %     16.3 %     16.7 %     17.7 %               16.8 %               16.7 %               16.1 %
Expense Ratio based on Adjusted Gross Written Premium
                            15.0 %     14.5 %     16.3 %     16.7 %     17.7 %               16.8 %               16.7 %               16.1 %
                   
 
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
2008 First-Quarter Supplement

25

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