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Cincinnati Financial Reports Third-Quarter 2009 Results

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CINCINNATI, Oct. 29 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cincinnati Financial Corporation(Nasdaq: CINF) today reported:

  • Net income of $171 million, or $1.05 per share, in the third quarter of 2009, compared with $247 million, or $1.50 per share, in the 2008 third quarter. Net realized investment gains contributed $75 million, or 46 cents per share, compared with $173 million, or $1.05 per share.
  • Operating income* of $96 million, or 59 cents per share, in the 2009 third quarter, compared with operating income of $74 million, or 45 cents per share.
  • Net income and operating income for the third-quarter of 2009 reflected a property casualty insurance underwriting profit, contributing 14 cents per share, compared with a third-quarter 2008 underwriting loss that decreased income by 4 cents per share. The property casualty contribution rose primarily on lower weather-related catastrophe losses.
  • Book value per share of $28.44 at September 30, 2009, up 11.6 percent during the quarter.
  • Value creation ratio reached 13.1 percent for the third quarter and 15.0 percent for the first nine months of 2009.


    Financial Highlights
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    (Dollars in millions except share data)
                                 Three months ended September 30,
                                  2009            2008    change %
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    Revenue Highlights
       Earned premiums             $766            $781       (1.9)
       Investment income            127             130       (2.4)
       Total revenues             1,007           1,186      (15.1)
    Income Statement Data
       Net income                  $171            $247      (31.0)
       Net realized investment
        gains and losses             75             173      (57.2)
                                    ---             ---
       Operating income*            $96             $74       30.7
                                    ===             ===
    Per Share Data (diluted)
       Net income                 $1.05           $1.50      (30.0)
       Net realized
        investment gains
        and losses                 0.46            1.05      (56.2)
                                   ----            ----
       Operating income*          $0.59           $0.45       31.1
                                   ====            ====
    Cash dividend declared        0.395            0.39        1.3
    Diluted weighted
     average shares
     outstanding            162,901,396     164,242,185       (0.8)



    Financial Highlights
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    (Dollars in millions except share data)
                                   Nine months ended September 30,
                                  2009            2008    change %
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    Revenue Highlights
       Earned premiums           $2,301          $2,355       (2.3)
       Investment income            370             412      (10.3)
       Total revenues             2,770           2,806       (1.3)
    Income Statement Data
       Net income                  $187            $268      (30.1)
       Net realized investment
        gains and losses             58              16      263.8
                                     --              --       ----
       Operating income*           $129            $252      (48.9)
                                    ===             ===       ====
    Per Share Data (diluted)
       Net income                 $1.15           $1.64      (29.9)
       Net realized
        investment gains
        and losses                 0.36            0.10      260.0
                                   ----            ----       ----
       Operating income*          $0.79           $1.54      (48.7)
                                  =====           =====      =====

       Book value                $28.44          $28.87       (1.5)
       Cash dividend declared     1.175            1.17        0.4
       Diluted weighted
        average shares
        outstanding         162,794,767     163,834,163       (0.6)

Insurance Operations Highlights

  • 95.1 percent third-quarter 2009 property casualty combined ratio improved from 101.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008.
  • Property casualty net written premiums grew $3 million or 0.5 percent, with new business from growth initiatives and lower ceded premiums for reinsurance offsetting the negative premium effects of the slow economy and a disciplined underwriting response to lower market pricing.
  • $14 million increase in property casualty new business written by agencies in the third quarter of 2009, with $9 million from standard market geographic expansion initiatives and $4 million from surplus lines.
  • 4 cents per share contribution from life insurance operations to third-quarter operating income, up from 3 cents per share.

Balance Sheet and Investment Highlights

  • $28.44 book value, up 10.4 percent from $25.75 at December 31, 2008. Property casualty statutory surplus rose 3.3 percent to $3.472 billion.
  • Invested assets fair value increased 7.4 percent and 17.3 percent during the third quarter and first nine months of 2009.
  • Investment income for the third quarter declined 2.4 percent and is approaching a growth pace following portfolio changes during 2008 and early 2009 to execute a capital preservation diversification strategy.
  • Strong capital position includes financial flexibility from parent company cash and marketable securities of $1.061 billion.

* The Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures on Page 10 defines and reconciles measures presented in this release that are not based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles or Statutory Accounting Principles.

** Forward-looking statements and related assumptions are subject to the risks outlined in the company's safe harbor statement (see Page 7).

Return to Profitability and Positive Direction

Kenneth W. Stecher, president and chief executive officer, commented, "While the economy and price competition continue to challenge our insurance business, the metrics we use to measure our success moved in a distinctly positive direction in the third quarter. Operating income of $96 million or 59 cents per share surpassed the amounts reported since the first quarter of 2008. Pre-tax investment income nearly reached the level of the 2008 third quarter, on track to resume a growth trend by year-end 2009.

"Our property casualty insurance operations benefitted from atypically low catastrophe losses, strong reserves and some stabilization of pricing. We achieved $36 million of pre-tax underwriting profit and a combined ratio of 95.1 percent for the third quarter, our best result since the fourth quarter of 2007. As expected, our workers' compensation and homeowner lines of business continued to underperform. For both of these lines, we are using predictive modeling techniques to improve the accuracy of our pricing for each account and to target best-of-class accounts. Early results show positive impacts on pricing and verify the trend to higher quality accounts, which should, over time, return these lines to profitability.

"We are satisfied with third-quarter results relative to other recent quarters, recognizing that we still have work to do. As we navigate through a difficult period for our company, our industry and economy, we continue to sharply focus on initiatives that have just begun to bear fruit and have strong potential to drive future profitable growth," Stecher said. "During the third quarter, we saw clear indications that these efforts are increasing current opportunities and opening new ones. Among those indications was a healthy amount of new business that directly resulted from our initiatives, helping offset lower premiums resulting from lower policyholder sales and payrolls used to calculate premiums. We continue to decline underpriced business, giving up short-term revenue to protect long-term profitability."

Current Progress and Potential for Profitable Growth

Stecher continued, "We are making good progress in expanding our product lines and pursuing geographic diversification. Our new surplus lines subsidiary has been well received by our independent agent representatives, and it is contributing steadily to new business. Our entry into additional states is going well, with business building at a good pace in Texas, New Mexico and eastern Washington. In September, we appointed our first Wyoming agency, expanding the marketing territory that includes northern Colorado. We're receiving rollover books of personal lines business in areas where we recently expanded that product line.

"Our technology initiatives also are proceeding on time and on budget. In October, we put our new policy administration system for commercial packages and auto policies into production in five states accounting for approximately 40 percent of our commercial lines premium. The system makes it easier for agents to serve the insurance needs of the businesses in their communities, offering efficiencies such as direct billing by the company and the ability to quote and issue policies in real time directly from their agency systems. We expect to have this system in six more states before year-end, with 19 additional states scheduled for 2010.

"Our expansion and technology initiatives support our long-term strategies. First, we are working to improve profitability by introducing more efficient systems and enhancing our underwriting capabilities. Second, we are driving premium growth by making it more attractive for agents to do business with us and by moving toward a larger footprint that also reduces volatility of our results associated with weather-related catastrophes. We also continue to make progress with the third part of our long-term strategy, to preserve capital. Our investment portfolio is actively managed, with an eye toward the appropriate balance between current income and the potential for capital appreciation that benefits shareholders."

Shareholder Rewards

Stecher concluded, "Significantly exceeding year-end 2008 levels, shareholders' equity rose to $4.626 billion and book value per share rose to $28.44 at the end of the third quarter. The increase helped take our value creation ratio for the year-to-date period to the 15 percent level earlier than anticipated. Our target for this measure is a 12 percent to 15 percent average for the five-year period of 2010 through 2014. The value creation ratio is the sum of our rate of growth in book value per share plus the ratio of dividends declared per share to beginning book value. It captures the contribution of our insurance operations, the success of our investment strategy and the importance we place on paying cash dividends to shareholders.

"During the third quarter, our board of directors increased the indicated annual dividend for a 49th consecutive year, raising the quarterly dividend paid October 15 by a half cent to 39.5 cents. This gesture signaled their confidence that we are moving steadily in the right direction, as verified by underwriting profit in the third quarter. We are eager to further pursue the new opportunities we have just begun to tap."



                 Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Operations
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    (Dollars in millions; percent
     change given for dollar amounts
     and point change given for ratios)

                             Three months ended      Nine months ended
                               September 30,           September 30,
                                         change                    change
                           2009    2008    %       2009     2008     %
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Earned premiums        $733    $751   (2.4)  $2,198   $2,262    (2.9)
    Loss and loss
     expenses before
     catastrophe losses     453     460   (1.5)   1,446    1,362      6.1
    Loss and loss
     expenses from
     catastrophe losses       6      63  (89.7)     177      219    (19.2)
                             --      --             ---      ---
       Total loss and
        loss expenses       459     523  (12.2)   1,623    1,581      2.6
    Underwriting expenses   238     237    0.2      716      707      1.4
                            ---     ---             ---      ---
       Underwriting
        profit (loss)       $36     $(9)   nm     $(141)    $(26)  (449.3)
                            ===     ====           ====     ====

    Other premium metrics:
      Agency renewal
       written premiums    $669    $687   (2.7)  $2,030   $2,159    (6.0)
      Agency new business
       written premiums     107      93   15.4      311      268    16.0
      Net written premiums  730     727    0.5    2,231    2,292    (2.7)

    Ratios as a percent
     of earned premiums:
                                       Points                 Points
                                       ------                 ------
       Loss and loss
        expenses           62.7%   69.7%  (7.0)    73.8%    69.9%    3.9
       Underwriting
        expenses           32.4    31.6    0.8     32.6     31.2     1.4
                           ----    ----    ---     ----     ----     ---
          Combined ratio   95.1%  101.3%  (6.2)   106.4%   101.1%    5.3
                           ====   =====    ===    =====    =====     ===
    Other metrics within
     combined ratio:
      Contribution from
       catastrophe losses   0.9     8.4   (7.5)     8.1      9.7    (1.6)
      Contribution from
       prior period
       reserve
       development        (12.4)  (13.6)   1.2     (5.2)    (8.9)    3.7

  • $3 million or 0.5 percent increase in third-quarter property casualty net written premiums as the effects of insured exposure decreases, soft pricing and disciplined renewal underwriting were offset by growth in new business and lower ceded premiums on reinsurance, including $8 million less for reinstatement premiums on catastrophe reinsurance.
  • $14 million increase in third-quarter 2009 new business written by agencies includes a $4 million increase from surplus lines operations that began in 2008 and a $10 million increase from personal lines operations.
  • 1,174 agency relationships with 1,455 reporting locations marketing standard market property casualty insurance products at September 30, 2009, up from 1,133 agency relationships with 1,387 reporting locations at year-end 2008.
  • Third-quarter 2009 GAAP combined ratio decreased primarily due to lower catastrophe losses.
  • Underwriting results benefitted from the impact of favorable prior accident year reserve development of $91 million for the third quarter of 2009 and $102 million for the third quarter of 2008.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    (In millions, net of reinsurance)
                                          Three months ended September 30,
                          Cause              Commercial  Personal
    Dates                of loss     Region    lines       lines   Total
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    2009
     First quarter
      catastrophes                               (1)         1        -
     Second quarter
      catastrophes                              (10)         1       (9)
     Sep. 18-22           Flood,     South
                           hail,
                           wind                   1          4        5
     All other 2009
      catastrophes                                6          6       12
     Development on
      2008 and prior
      catastrophes                               (3)         1       (2)
                                                 --         --       --
        Calendar year
         incurred
         total                                  $(7)       $13       $6
                                                 ==         ==       ==

    2008
     First quarter
      catastrophes                               (1)         -       (1)
     Second quarter
      catastrophes                               (2)       (10)     (12)
     Jul. 19              Wind,      Midwest
                           hail,
                           flood                  3          3        6
     Jul. 26              Wind,      Midwest
                           hail,
                           flood                  1          8        9
     Sep. 12-14           Hurricane  South,
                           Ike        Midwest    20         37       57
     All other 2008
      catastrophes                                1          -        1
     Development on 2007
      and prior
      catastrophes                                1          2        3
                                                 --         --       --
        Calendar year
         incurred
         total                                  $23        $40      $63
                                                ===        ===      ===



                                           Nine months ended September 30,
                           Cause             Commercial  Personal
    Dates                 of loss    Region    lines       lines   Total
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    2009
     First quarter
      catastrophes                               20         47       67
     Second quarter
      catastrophes                               42         45       87
     Sep. 18-22           Flood,     South
                           hail,
                           wind                   1          4        5
     All other 2009
      catastrophes                               11         13       24
     Development on 2008
      and prior
      catastrophes                              (10)         4       (6)
                                                 --         --       --
        Calendar year
         incurred
         total                                  $64       $113     $177
                                                 ==        ===      ===

    2008
     First quarter
      catastrophes                               21         21       42
     Second quarter
      catastrophes                               66         34      100
     Jul. 19              Wind,      Midwest
                           hail,
                           flood                  3          3        6
     Jul. 26              Wind,      Midwest
                           hail,
                           flood                  1          8        9
     Sep. 12-14           Hurricane  South,
                           Ike        Midwest    20         37       57
     All other 2008
      catastrophes                                3          3        6
     Development on
      2007 and prior
      catastrophes                               (2)         1       (1)
                                                 --         --       --
        Calendar year
         incurred
         total                                 $112       $107     $219
                                               ====       ====     ====


                            Insurance Segments Highlights

    Commercial Lines Insurance Operations
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    (Dollars in millions;
     percent change given
     for dollar amounts
     and point change given
     for ratios)            Three months ended      Nine months ended
                             September 30,              September 30,
                                        change                     change
                       2009     2008       %       2009     2008      %
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Earned premiums    $555     $582     (4.7)   $1,667    $1,743    (4.4)

    Loss and loss
     expenses before
     catastrophe
     losses             336      348     (3.6)    1,095     1,034     5.9
    Loss and loss
     expenses from
     catastrophe losses  (7)      23       nm        64       112   (42.8)
                         --       --                 --       ---
       Total loss and
        loss expenses   329      371    (11.5)    1,159     1,146     1.2
    Underwriting
     expenses           184      181      1.6       539       538     0.2
                        ---      ---                ---       ---
       Underwriting
        profit (loss)   $42      $30     41.5      $(31)      $59  (152.1)
                        ===      ===               ====       ===
    Other premium
     metrics:
      Agency renewal
       written
       premiums        $489     $502     (2.5)   $1,535    $1,642    (6.5)
      Agency new
       business
       written premiums  76       77     (0.4)      231       229     0.8
      Net written
       premiums         528      538     (1.8)    1,678     1,759    (4.7)

    Ratios as a
     percent of earned
     premiums:                         Points                      Points
                                       ------                      ------
       Loss and loss
        expenses       59.3%    63.8%    (4.5)     69.6%     65.7%    3.9
       Underwriting
        expenses       33.1     31.1      2.0      32.3      30.9     1.4
                       ----     ----      ---      ----      ----     ---
            Combined
             Ratio     92.4%    94.9%    (2.5)    101.9%     96.6%    5.3
                       ====     ====      ===     =====      ====     ===
    Other metrics
     within combined
     ratio:
      Contribution from
       catastrophe
       losses          (1.2)     4.0     (5.2)      3.8       6.4    (2.6)
      Contribution from
       prior period
       reserve
       development    (13.4)   (15.0)     1.6      (5.2)    (10.1)    4.9
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------

  • $10 million or 1.8 percent decrease in third-quarter commercial lines net written premiums. Lower renewal premiums reflected modest pricing declines and lower insured exposure levels such as business sales or payroll volume, due to the weak economy. Lower new business premiums reflected decisions to decline business considered underpriced, partially offset by growth initiatives including $4 million from Texas, a market we entered in December 2008.
  • 2.5 percentage-point improvement in third-quarter combined ratio due primarily to lower weather-related catastrophe losses.
  • Favorable prior accident year reserve development benefitted third-quarter underwriting results by $74 million for 2009 compared with $88 million for 2008, with umbrella liability coverages driving the majority of the 2009 benefit.


    Personal Lines Insurance Operations
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    (Dollars in millions; percent change given for dollar amounts
     and point change given for ratios)

                           Three months ended        Nine months ended
                              September 30,             September 30,
                                           change                   change
                         2009    2008        %     2009      2008      %
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Earned premiums      $170    $167      1.8      $513      $518   (0.9)

    Loss and loss
     expenses before
     catastrophe
     losses               112    111       0.3       337       328    2.7
    Loss and loss
     expenses from
     catastrophe losses    13      40    (66.2)      113       107    5.3
                           --      --                ---       ---
       Total loss and
        loss expenses     125     151    (17.2)      450       435    3.3
    Underwriting
     expenses              49      54     (8.8)      159       165   (3.2)
                           --      --                ---       ---
       Underwriting
        loss              $(4)   $(38)    89.8      $(96)     $(82) (16.6)
                           ===    ===                ===       ===
    Other premium metrics:
      Agency renewal
       direct written
        premiums         $177    $185     (4.7)     $490      $517   (5.3)
      Agency new
       business direct
       written premiums    21      11     90.9        55        30   82.0
      Net written
       premiums           190     184      3.2       524       525   (0.1)

    Ratios as a percent
     of earned premiums:                Points                      Points
                                        ------                      ------
       Loss and loss
        expenses         73.3%   90.1%   (16.8)     87.5%     84.0%   3.5
       Underwriting
        expenses         29.0    32.4    (3.4)      31.2      31.9   (0.7)
                         ----    ----     ---       ----      ----    ---
          Combined
           Ratio        102.3%  122.5%   (20.2)    118.7%    115.9%   2.8
                        =====   =====     ====     =====     =====    ===
    Other metrics
     within combined
     ratio:
      Contribution
       from catastrophe
       losses             7.9    23.8   (15.9)      22.0      20.7    1.3
      Contribution
       from prior
       period reserve
       development      (10.1)   (9.1)    (1.0)     (5.0)     (5.2)    0.2
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------

  • $6 million or 3.2 percent increase in third-quarter personal lines net written premiums, including $6 million lower catastrophe reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Lower renewal premiums were offset by higher new business premiums.
  • $10 million increase in third-quarter personal lines new business including $4 million from seven states where we began in 2008 to market personal lines or significantly expanded our personal lines product offerings and automation capabilities.
  • 20.2 percentage-point decrease in the combined ratio largely due to a 15.9 percentage-point decrease in catastrophe losses.
  • Favorable prior accident year reserve development benefitted third-quarter underwriting results by $17 million for 2009 compared with $15 million for 2008, with umbrella liability coverages driving the majority of the 2009 benefit.



    Life Insurance Operations
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    (In millions)         Three months ended           Nine months ended
                             September 30,               September 30,
                      2009    2008    change %    2009      2008   change %
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Written premiums  $110     $44     150.1      $233      $135      73.2
                      ====     ===                ====      ====

    Earned premiums    $33     $30      10.7      $103       $93      11.0
    Investment income,
     net of expenses    31      30       3.4       90        89       2.0
    Other income         -       -        nm        1         1     (56.3)
                        --      --                 --        --
      Total revenues,
       excluding realized
       investment gains
       and losses       64      60       7.7       194       183       6.1
                        --      --                 ---       ---
    Contract holders
     benefits           40      41      (1.0)      118       115       3.1
    Underwriting
     expenses            9      11     (16.7)       34        33       4.6
                        --      --                  --        --
        Total benefits
         and expenses   49      52      (4.4)      152       148       3.4
                        --      --                 ---       ---
    Net income before
     income tax and
     realized investment
     gains and losses   15       8      90.1        42        35      17.6
    Income tax           8       3     175.8        15        12      23.5
                        --      --                  --        --
    Net income before
     realized investment
     gains and losses   $7      $5      43.2       $27       $23      14.6
                        ==      ==                 ===       ===

  • $66 million three-month and $98 million nine-month growth in 2009 life insurance segment net written premiums primarily due to increased fixed annuity sales. Written premiums include life insurance, annuity and accident and health premiums.
  • Net written premiums from life insurance products grew 10.1 percent during the third quarter of 2009 and 8.5 percent to $117 million for the first nine months of 2009.
  • 12.0 percent rise to $65 million in term life insurance written premiums for the first nine months of 2009, reflecting marketing advantages of competitive, up-to-date products, close personal attention and policies backed by financial strength and stability.
  • Growth in earned premiums drove improved profitability for the third quarter and first nine months of 2009 as life insurance operations continue to provide a steady contribution to overall earnings. Reduced underwriting expenses also contributed to higher profitability for the third quarter of 2009.
  • 4.6 percent rise in face amount of life policies in force to $68.895 billion at September 30, 2009, from $65.888 billion at year-end 2008.


                        Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights

    Investment Operations
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
     (In millions)          Three months ended        Nine months ended
                               September 30,            September 30,
                                        change                       change
                           2009  2008      %       2009      2008      %
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Investment income:
       Interest            $104   $83    26.0      $296      $238     24.5
       Dividends             24    46   (48.0)       74       169    (56.2)
       Other                  1     3   (70.4)        6        10    (47.3)
       Investment
        expenses             (2)   (2)  (18.0)       (6)       (5)   (11.3)
                             --    --                --        --
          Total
           investment
           income, net
           of expenses      127   130    (2.4)      370       412    (10.3)
                            ---   ---               ---       ---
    Investment interest
     credited to
     contract holders       (17)  (16)  (10.1)      (50)      (47)    (7.6)
                             --    --                --        --
    Realized investment
     gains and losses
     summary:
       Realized
        investment gains
        and losses, net     106   401   (73.6)      180       441    (59.1)
       Change in fair
         value of
         securities
         with embedded
         derivatives         15    (8)   296.0       23       (13)   268.0
       Other-than-
        temporary
        impairment
        charges             (11) (121)    90.8     (113)     (400)    71.7
                             --   ---               ---       ---
          Total realized
           investment gains
           and losses, net  110   272    (59.6)      90        28    218.1
                            ---   ---                --        --
    Investment
     operations income     $220  $386    (43.2)    $410      $393      4.0
                            ===   ===               ===       ===

  • 2.4 percent decline in third-quarter 2009 net investment income, as higher interest income only partially offset dividend reductions by equity security holdings. Those dividend reductions occurred primarily during late 2008 and early 2009.
  • $572 million third-quarter 2009 increase in pre-tax unrealized investment gains, including $407 million for the fixed maturities portfolio.
  • Pre-tax realized investment gain for the first nine months of 2009 included $205 million in net gains from sales of equity securities as the company actively managed sector and issue diversification.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    (Dollars in millions except share data)
                                         At September 30,   At December 31,
                                              2009              2008
    Balance sheet data
       Invested assets                      $10,428             $8,890
       Total assets                          14,226             13,369
       Short-term debt                           49                 49
       Long-term debt                           790                791
       Shareholders' equity                   4,626              4,182
       Book value per share                   28.44              25.75

       Debt-to-capital ratio                   15.3%              16.7%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Nine months ended September 30,
                                               2009               2008
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Performance measures
       Value creation ratio                    15.0%             (15.9)%
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

  • $10.876 billion in cash and invested assets at September 30, 2009, up from $9.899 billion at December 31, 2008. Cash and equivalents of $448 million at September 30, 2009, compared with $1.009 billion at December 31, 2008.
  • $7.668 billion bond portfolio at September 30, 2009, with an average rating of A2/A and with a 7.6 percent rise in fair value during the third quarter of 2009.
  • $2.669 billion equity portfolio was 25.6 percent of invested assets, including $697 million in pre-tax unrealized gains at September 30, 2009. Fair value of the equity portfolio rose 7.1 percent during the third quarter of 2009.
  • $3.472 billion of statutory surplus for the property casualty insurance group at September 30, 2009, up from $3.360 billion at December 31, 2008. Ratio of net written premiums to property casualty statutory surplus for the 12 months ended September 30, 2009, of 0.85-to-1, further improved from 0.89-to-1 for the 12 months ended December 31, 2008.
  • Value creation ratio for the first nine months of 2009 includes 4.6 percent from shareholder dividends and 10.4 percent growth in book value per share.

For additional information or to register for this morning's conference call webcast, please visit www.cinfin.com/investors.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers business, home and auto insurance, our main business, through The Cincinnati Insurance Company and its two standard market property casualty companies. The same local independent insurance agencies that market those policies may offer products of our other subsidiaries, including life and disability income insurance, annuities and surplus lines property and casualty insurance. For additional information about the company, please visit www.cinfin.com.

    Mailing Address:                     Street Address:
    P.O. Box 145496                      6200 South Gilmore Road
    Cincinnati, Ohio 45250-5496          Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141

Safe Harbor Statement

This is our "Safe Harbor" statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2008 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 25. Although we often review or update our forward-looking statements when events warrant, we caution our readers that we undertake no obligation to do so.

Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:

  • Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes
  • Increased frequency and/or severity of claims
  • Inadequate estimates or assumptions used for critical accounting estimates
  • Recession or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
  • Delays in adoption and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods that could increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
  • Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for our personal lines segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude this segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
  • Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company's equity portfolio and book value
  • Events, such as the credit crisis, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
    • Significant or prolonged decline in the value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
    • Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
    • Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions
  • Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company's ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
  • Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company's premium volume
  • Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages
  • Ability to obtain adequate reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for non-payment or delay in payment by reinsurers
  • Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company's relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company's opportunities for growth, such as:
    • Multi-notch downgrades of the company's financial strength ratings
    • Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult
    • Perceptions that the company's level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
    • Delays or inadequacies in the development, implementation, performance and benefits of technology projects and enhancements
  • Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:
    • Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
    • Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
    • Increase our expenses
    • Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
    • Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
    • Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace
    • Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents
  • Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings
  • Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company's future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
  • Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
  • Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location

Further, the company's insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. The company also is subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for its common stock, such as recent measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.


                        Cincinnati Financial Corporation

            Condensed Balance Sheets and Statements of Income (unaudited)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    (Dollars in millions)                    September 30,   December 31,
                                                2009            2008
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Assets
       Investments                              $10,428            $8,890
       Cash and cash equivalents                    448             1,009
       Premiums receivable                        1,046             1,059
       Reinsurance receivable                       707               759
       Other assets                               1,597             1,652
                                                  -----             -----
          Total assets                          $14,226           $13,369
                                                 ======            ======

    Liabilities
       Insurance reserves                        $5,893            $5,637
       Unearned premiums                          1,557             1,544
       6.125% senior notes due 2034                 371               371
       6.9% senior debentures due 2028               28                28
       6.92% senior debentures due 2028             391               392
       Other liabilities                          1,360             1,215
                                                  -----             -----
          Total liabilities                       9,600             9,187
                                                  -----             -----

    Shareholders' Equity
       Common stock and paid-in capital           1,471             1,462
       Retained earnings                          3,681             3,579
       Accumulated other comprehensive income       675               347
       Treasury stock                            (1,201)           (1,206)
                                                  -----             -----
          Total shareholders' equity              4,626             4,182
                                                  -----             -----
          Total liabilities and shareholders'
           equity                               $14,226           $13,369
                                                 ======            ======

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
     (Dollars in millions except per share data)
                               Three months ended    Nine months ended
                                  September 30,         September 30,
                                2009       2008       2009       2008
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    Revenues
       Earned premiums          $766       $781     $2,301     $2,355
       Investment income, net
        of expenses              127        130        370        412
       Realized investment gains
        and losses               110        272         90         28
       Other income                4          3          9         11
                                  --         --         --         --
          Total revenues       1,007      1,186      2,770      2,806
                               -----      -----      -----      -----

    Benefits and Expenses
       Insurance losses and
        policyholder benefits    498        563      1,737      1,693
       Underwriting, acquisition
        and insurance expenses   247        248        750        738
       Other operating expenses    4          5         14         16
       Interest expense           14         14         42         39
                                  --         --         --         --
          Total benefits and
           expenses              763        830      2,543      2,486
                                 ---        ---      -----      -----

    Income before Income Taxes   244        356        227        320

    Provision for Income Taxes    73        109         40         52
                                  --        ---         --         --
    Net Income                  $171       $247       $187       $268
                                 ===        ===        ===        ===

    Per Common Share:
       Net income-basic        $1.05      $1.51      $1.15      $1.64
       Net income-diluted      $1.05      $1.50      $1.15      $1.64

Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures

(See attached tables for 2009 reconciliations; prior-period reconciliations available at www.cinfin.com/investors.)

Cincinnati Financial Corporation prepares its public financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). Statutory data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners' (NAIC) Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP data.

Management uses certain non-GAAP and non-statutory financial measures to evaluate its primary business areas - property casualty insurance, life insurance and investments. Management uses these measures when analyzing both GAAP and nonGAAP measures to improve its understanding of trends in the underlying business and to help avoid incorrect or misleading assumptions and conclusions about the success or failure of company strategies. Management adjustments to GAAP measures generally: apply to non-recurring events that are unrelated to business performance and distort short-term results; involve values that fluctuate based on events outside of management's control; or relate to accounting refinements that affect comparability between periods, creating a need to analyze data on the same basis.

  • Operating income: Operating income is calculated by excluding net realized investment gains and losses (defined as realized investment gains and losses after applicable federal and state income taxes) from net income. Management evaluates operating income to measure the success of pricing, rate and underwriting strategies. While realized investment gains (or losses) are integral to the company's insurance operations over the long term, the determination to realize investment gains or losses in any period may be subject to management's discretion and is independent of the insurance underwriting process. Also, under applicable GAAP accounting requirements, gains and losses can be recognized from certain changes in market values of securities without actual realization. Management believes that the level of realized investment gains or losses for any particular period, while it may be material, may not fully indicate the performance of ongoing underlying business operations in that period.
  • For these reasons, many investors and shareholders consider operating income to be one of the more meaningful measures for evaluating insurance company performance. Equity analysts who report on the insurance industry and the company generally focus on this metric in their analyses. The company presents operating income so that all investors have what management believes to be a useful supplement to GAAP information.
  • Statutory accounting rules: For public reporting, insurance companies prepare financial statements in accordance with GAAP. However, insurers also must calculate certain data according to statutory accounting rules as defined in the NAIC's Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual, which may be, and has been, modified by various state insurance departments. Statutory data is publicly available, and various organizations use it to calculate aggregate industry data, study industry trends and compare insurance companies.
  • Written premium: Under statutory accounting rules, property casualty written premium is the amount recorded for policies issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management analyzes trends in written premium to assess business efforts. Earned premium, used in both statutory and GAAP accounting, is calculated ratably over the policy term. The difference between written and earned premium is unearned premium.
  • Written premium adjustment - statutory basis only: In 2002, the company refined its estimation process for matching property casualty written premiums to policy effective dates, which added $117 million to 2002 written premiums. To better assess ongoing business trends, management may exclude this adjustment when analyzing trends in written premiums and statutory ratios that make use of written premiums.


                          Cincinnati Financial Corporation
    Net Income Reconciliation
    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    (In millions except per share data)

                               Three months ended     Nine months ended
                               September 30, 2009    September 30, 2009
    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Net income                      $171                   $187
    Net realized investment
     gains and losses                 75                     58
                                      --                     --
    Operating income                  96                    129
    Less catastrophe losses           (4)                  (115)
                                     ---                    ---
    Operating income before
     catastrophe losses             $100                   $244
                                     ===                    ===
    Diluted per share data:
       Net income                  $1.05                  $1.15
       Net realized investment
        gains and losses            0.46                   0.36
                                    ----                   ----
       Operating income             0.59                   0.79
       Less catastrophe losses     (0.03)                 (0.71)
                                    ----                   ----
       Operating income before
        catastrophe losses         $0.62                  $1.50
                                    ====                   ====
    -------------------------------------------------------------------
                        Property Casualty Reconciliation
    -------------------------------------------------------------------

    (Dollars in millions)    Three months ended September 30, 2009

                              Consolidated*   Commercial  Personal
    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Premiums:
       Adjusted written premiums
        - statutory                 $736         534        190
       Written premium adjustment     (6)         (6)         0
                                      --          --         --
       Reported written premiums
        - statutory                  730         528        190
       Unearned premiums change        3          27        (20)
                                      --          --         --
       Earned premiums              $733        $555       $170
                                     ===         ===        ===
    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Statutory combined ratio:
       Statutory combined ratio     96.9%       94.9%     102.8%
       Contribution from
        catastrophe losses           0.9        (1.2)       7.9
                                     ---         ---        ---
       Statutory combined ratio
        excluding catastrophe
        losses                      96.0%       96.1%      94.9%
                                    ====        ====       ====

       Commission expense ratio     20.1%       20.3%      19.1%
       Other expense ratio          14.1        15.3       10.4
                                    ----        ----       ----
       Statutory expense ratio      34.2%       35.6%      29.5%
                                    ====        ====       ====

    GAAP combined ratio:
       GAAP combined ratio          95.1%       92.4%     102.3%
       Contribution from
        catastrophe losses           0.9        (1.2)       7.9
       Prior accident years
        before catastrophe
        losses                     (12.1)      (12.8)     (10.7)
                                    ----        ----       ----
       GAAP combined ratio
        excluding catastrophe
        losses and prior
        years reserve development  106.3%      106.4%     105.1%
                                   =====       =====      =====


    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    (Dollars in millions)      Nine months ended September 30, 2009

                               Consolidated*  Commercial  Personal
    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Premiums:
       Adjusted written
        premiums - statutory      $2,226      $1,674       $523
       Written premium adjustment      5           4          1
                                      --          --         --
       Reported written premiums
        - statutory                2,231       1,678        524
       Unearned premiums change      (33)        (11)       (11)
                                      --          --         --
       Earned premiums            $2,198      $1,667       $513
                                   =====       =====        ===
    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Statutory combined ratio:
       Statutory combined ratio    106.2%      101.8%      118.7%
       Contribution from
        catastrophe losses           8.1         3.8        22.0
                                     ---         ---        ----
       Statutory combined
        ratio excluding catastrophe
        losses                      98.1%       98.0%       96.7%
                                    ====        ====        ====

       Commission expense ratio     18.7%       18.2%       19.6%
       Other expense ratio          13.7        14.1        11.6
                                    ----        ----        ----
       Statutory expense ratio      32.4%       32.3%       31.2%
                                    ====        ====        ====

    GAAP combined ratio:
       GAAP combined ratio         106.4%      101.9%      118.7%
       Contribution from
        catastrophe losses           8.1         3.8        22.0
       Prior accident years
        before catastrophe losses   (4.9)       (4.6)       (5.8)
                                     ---         ---         ---
       GAAP combined ratio
        excluding catastrophe
        losses and prior
        years reserve development  103.2%      102.7%      102.5
                                   =====       =====       =====
    -------------------------------------------------------------------

    Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not
    add due to rounding.  Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar
    amounts.

    * Consolidated property casualty data includes results from our surplus
    line of business.

SOURCE Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Investor Contact
Dennis E. McDaniel
+1-513-870-2768
CINF-IR@cinfin.com
or
Media
Joan O. Shevchik
+1-513-603-5323
Media_Inquiries@cinfin.com
both of
Cincinnati Financial Corporation

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